There have only been four instances since 1929 when the S&P 500 declined two or more years in a row.
Worried about a down year in 2019? It’s statistically unlikely.
2018 is ending on a downer, with the S&P 500 down six percent (down four percent when dividends are included) for its first real down year since 2008 (the S&P was down 0.7 percent in 2015 on a price basis, but on a total return basis —including dividends — was up 1.4 percent).
Could 2019 see a second down year in a row? It’s certainly possible — a 10-year win streak would argue for some kind of mean reversion — but even so, consecutive down years in the S&P 500 are remarkably rare.
The last time the S&P was down two or more consecutive years on a total return basis (including dividends) was way back in 2000 to 2003, when it was down three consecutive years, according to data from the Stern School at NYU.
