A new year begins with lots of questions. In honor of the late, great columnist William Safire, who annually penned a news year’s quiz, here’s a short test to get you thinking about what 2019 will offer in terms of politics, economics, world affairs, sports, pop culture and the mood of the nation.
George W. Bush, presenting the Presidential Medal of Freedom to the late William Safire, in December 2006. (Photo: Dennis Brack/Bloomberg News) BLOOMBERG NEWS
The late, great William Safire had a wonderful New Year’s tradition: treating his readers to a quiz on what to expect with the calendar flipped.
Mr. Safire was indeed a gem, as his surname suggested. To honor his memory, here’s my (hopefully not-too-lame) attempt at things to ponder in what should be an eventful 2019.
On with the quiz . .
1) The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished just shy of 25,000 at the close of 2017 and 300 points north of 23,000 in 2018 – overall, its biggest annual decline in over a decade. In 2019, the Dow will: a) commence a bull run that takes it past 25,000; b) continue the 2018 trend and drop precipitously; c) roughly break even for the year; d) show repeated volatility amidst political and economic uncertainty at home and abroad.
2) 2018 turned out to be the best year for GDP growth in America in over a decade (though there were troubling signs by year’s-end). In 2019, GDP growth will: a) surpass 3%; b) be more in line with the 30-year average of 2.5%; c) fall somewhere between 2.5%-2.0%; d) pancake, fall below 2.0%.
3) In the finals weeks of 2018, the public release of special counsel Robert Mueller’s special report supposedly was imminent. Assuming that report (or portions of it) materializes in 2019, its biggest finding will be: a) obstruction of justice by President Trump; b) coordination between the 2016 Trump campaign and Russian agents; c) the need for more indictments of Trump insiders; d) anti-climax in the form of no evidence of Trump-Russian collaboration.
4) The most compelling foreign policy story in the new year: a) what comes next in Syria, should President Trump make good on his pledge to withdraw troops; b) the seeming contradiction of a lame-duck Angela Merkel pledging to get Germany more involved in world affairs; c) Vladimir Putin’s intentions, including Russia’s economic and military ploys in the direction of Venezuela; d) Trump’s next moves in Central America, given the possibly of more migrant caravans; e) worsening of Sino-U.
