The ongoing apparent attempted coup in Venezuela is already leading to talk of American intervention in the event of a crackdown. That would be unwise and
As James Joyner noted in an earlier post, there appears to be an ongoing attempt to overthrow the regime of Venezuelan being led by Juan Guaidó, the self-proclaimed Acting President of Venezuela and at least some elements of the Venezuelan military. At this point, it’s still unclear what the reality of the situation on the ground actually is and whether Guaidó is gaining support from the military, which would be essential for the success of any effort to oust President Nicolás Maduro from power. Indeed, as Daniel Larison notes, this move by Guaidó comes across as something of a desperate last-ditch gamble:
Guaido’s previous gambles to trigger large-scale military defections from the government have either not worked or backfired. The opposition’s attempt to weaponize aid deliveries and force their way in from Colombia failed. Guaido was able to reenter the country later, but his return did not appear to have any effect on military support for the regime. This one doesn’t appear any more likely to succeed. For all intents and purposes, Guaido is trying to launch a coup without having already secured significant support from the military. The most likely result is that some soldiers defect to Guaido’s cause, but not enough to force Maduro from power. Guaido may be hoping to provoke a crackdown that can be used as a pretext for outside intervention
The news out of Caracas today has led many top Administration officials, including the President, to take to social media with supportive statements:
President Donald Trump and his top aides on Tuesday publicly backed an attempted coup in Venezuela, where opposition leaders have teamed with a band of rebellious soldiers in an effort to oust strongman leader Nicolás Maduro.
Supporting the uprising is a risky proposition for Trump. Maduro, who retains the loyalty of many of his military generals, may survive and many Latin Americans resent America’s history of backing coups throughout the region. Russia and Cuba are also propping up Maduro.
But should Maduro fall, Trump can claim a political and even moral victory as the 2020 elections loom, saying that months of pressure from his administration — pressure that earned support from many Democrats — helped liberate starving Venezuelans from an autocrat who destroyed their country’s economy. Trump has been insisting that Maduro step aside since late January, when he recognized Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the country’s legitimate leader.
Toppling Maduro would be a particularly salient political talking point for Trump because the president is trying to paint Democrats eyeing the White House as socialists who want to mimic Maduro’s style of governance.
“I am monitoring the situation in Venezuela very closely. The United States stands with the People of Venezuela and their Freedom!” Trump tweeted Tuesday afternoon.
Guaidó is leading the coup attempt, dubbed Operación Libertad. As Guaidó and a group of activists and soldiers called on Venezuelans to take to the streets and more soldiers to defect, several Trump aides voiced their backing in even more specific terms than the U. S. president.
“Estamos con ustedes!” Vice President Mike Pence wrote on Twitter. “We are with you! America will stand with you until freedom & democracy are restored. Vayan con dios! #FreeVenezuela.”
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted that “the U. S. Government fully supports the Venezuelan people in their quest for freedom and democracy.” National security adviser John Bolton, meanwhile, tweeted that “Venezuela’s military has a choice: embrace democracy, protect civilians and members of the democratically-elected National Assembly, or face more man-made suffering and isolation.”
Ahead of Trump’s tweet, White House senior adviser Kellyanne Conway also expressed support for Guaidó.
“We stand with the people of Venezuela and we stand with Juan Guaidó,” she told reporters.
