Officials gave too little attention to the impact of the economic calamity of their sweeping lockdowns. A vast body of evidence about COVID-19 suggests that policymakers should instead target interventions to vulnerable populations and infection hotspots.
America has been a tinderbox after months of confinement, joblessness, and economic ruin. Last week people broke out of their homes to peacefully protest the brutal death of George Floyd, but officials say rioters are taking advantage of the demonstrations to destroy buildings and businesses across the country.
Now governors and mayors are threatening to continue the shutdowns and extend curfews “indefinitely.”
Testing must continue and accelerate, especially in inner cities where thousands of people hit the streets in riots and demonstrations. But continuing the shutdowns would throw more fuel on the fires of unrest. Authorities need to stop the riots and then focus on safely opening their economies to avoid a new round of tensions.
Even before the riots, many governors and other public officials were stubbornly insisting their lockdowns must continue, despite mounting evidence they are unnecessary and even harmful in most areas and that they divert focus from plans and strategies that could save lives and livelihoods.
Deaths from COVID-19 are concentrated in just 30 counties which have about 15% of the nation’s population but more than 53% of COVID-19 deaths, according to a new paper by Galen Senior Fellow Doug Badger and Heritage scholar Norbert Michel, published by The Heritage Foundation.
Further,24 of these counties are geographically concentrated in the congested Northeast corridor between Philadelphia and Boston.
And a separate analysis by Gregg Girvan and Avik Roy for the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP) finds that COVID-19 deaths are concentrated further in long-term care facilities that house just 0.62% of the U. S. population.
If public officials follow the evidence, they would act to protect those at most risk from the disease—the elderly—especially those in congregate settings—nursing homes—and in the 1% of counties with most of the infections and deaths.
Instead, lockdowns have become an end in themselves, where officials and the media focused on those who may sit on a beach, open a gym, or go without a facemask in nursery school.
Officials gave too little attention to the impact of the economic calamity their lockdowns caused. They devoted their attention to crafting complex and sweeping stay-at-home orders, which were initially intended to slow the spread of the virus and not overwhelm hospitals as happened in Northern Italy earlier this year. With many hospitals nearly half empty and laying off employees, most states and counties could lift the orders without consequence.
According to the Heritage paper, “Policymakers Should Adapt COVID-19 Responses to the Evidence,” half of all U. S. counties didn’t have a single COVID-19 death as of May 11, and 63% had no more than one. Most never should have been required to shut down and ruin already struggling economies especially in rural areas.
Nonetheless, officials persist: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has extended Michigan’s stay home order until at least June 12, and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti has said the city will never be able to fully re-open until there is a cure.
