WASHINGTON (AP) — At first glance, the June employment report was a blockbuster. The U. S. economy produced a record 4.8 million added jobs last month…
WASHINGTON (AP) — At first glance, the June employment report was a blockbuster.
The U. S. economy produced a record 4.8 million added jobs last month, walloping expectations. And the unemployment rate sank from 13.3% all the way to 11.1%.
“Today’s announcement,” President Donald Trump declared Thursday after the report was released, “proves that our economy is roaring back.”
Maybe. But most economists warn that the risks ahead outweigh the reasons to cheer as the economy and the job market struggle to emerge from a devastating meltdown triggered by the coronavirus.
Further hiring gains are imperiled by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases throughout the South and West. And despite a solid rebound in employment, the job market remains badly damaged — by the pandemic itself, by the lockdowns imposed to contain it and by a loss of confidence among Americans fearful of returning to shops and restaurants until a vaccine or an effective treatment for the virus is available.
Even after superb hiring reports for May and June, the economy has regained only about one-third of the 22 million jobs it lost to the pandemic recession, according to Thursday’s jobs report. And the unemployment rate still exceeds the highest rate during the 2009-2009 Great Recession.
Here are five major takeaways from a jobs report that was surprisingly robust yet may not fully reflect a fast-evolving employment market.
THE GOOD NEWS MAY BE OLD NEWS
Just as the economy seemed to be gathering momentum after springtime lockdowns of businesses, confirmed virus cases began resurging throughout the South and the West. The spike in cases forced state and local governments that had allowed many businesses to reopen to suddenly suspend or reverse those plans.
Many bars and restaurants, newly reopened in late May and early June, shut down again and laid off workers — again. The June report didn’t include those job cuts.
“Remember that the (June jobs) data are capturing the data from the middle of May through the middle of June, given the survey period,” economists at Bank of America Global Research cautioned. “It captures the state of the labor market before the economy was hit by the rise in virus cases in the Sun Belt.”
Researchers who track business activity in real time have detected evidence of a slump.
