Seeing red.
There’s something familiar about this. Ah, right. September 7,2016: “Just so you understand, we are going to play New York. You know, we’re not just doing this for fun. We’re going to play New York,” Trump told the New York Conservative Party at its convention Wednesday evening. “We are going to play so hard and win. We are going to win this state,” he added as he wrapped up his speech. “It’s going to shock people, and by the way, you know if we win this state, it’s over. We win, OK? We win.” On the day he said that, he trailed Hillary in New York by 21 points. He ended up losing the state by 21 points. Today he trails Biden there by 24 points. What do you suppose the final margin will be? Trump fans will insist that he’s just trolling by saying this. I agree. Ninety-five percent probability: In New York City, “shootings are double, murders, everything has doubled and tripled. And I’ve heard numbers,244 percent on some kinds of crimes. What is it,277 percent [for shootings]?” Trump said. “I’ll solve the crime problem. I’ll solve their tax problem. I’ll solve all their problems. Who would not vote for me?” he said. “We’re going to look into SALT, we’re going to look into crime, we’re going to look into all of the things and solve the problems — of many problems that they have in New York.” He continued: “We did well last time, but to get over 50 percent is hard for a Republican. But we’re putting New York in play. We’re going to play it very strong and very hard. And we are going to try to win New York.” “We’re going to invest in there, we’ll visit,” he promised the New York Post, which may be a simple case of him telling his audience at the moment what it wants to hear. If you’re talking to a New York paper, you need to signal interest in New York, right? He did keep his promise about visiting today — because, unfortunately, his brother is ill and in the hospital there — but I’m going to guess that the Trump campaign will not, in fact, be devoting resources to New York at a moment when Biden has caught up in fundraising and is threatening in red strongholds like Texas and Georgia.
