Yes, says a conflict expert.
For months, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been accused of using illegal migrants as a tool to punish the European Union for imposing sanctions on his regime. In July, Belarus loosened its restrictions on visas and increased flights on its state-run airline from West Asia, allowing thousands of would-be migrants to arrive from Iraq, Syria and other countries. Belarusian security forces then funnelled the migrants to the borders with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia – all members of the European Union – and even gave them wire cutters to breach the fences. In recent weeks, the situation has grown dire, with thousands of migrants now trapped in tents in freezing conditions and nowhere to go. At least 11 migrants have died. Belarus has been accused by the European Union of manufacturing the crisis in revenge for sanctions imposed in June. The European Union has not backed down, adopting fresh sanctions on Belarus this week. European officials have stepped up their use of war-like rhetoric, as well. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki accused Lukashenko of “ using civilians as weapons for a modern hybrid war ”. Charles Michel, the European Council president, called the crisis a “ brutal, hybrid attack on our EU borders ”. And North Atlantic Treaty Organization has blasted the “ irregular migration artificially created by Belarus as part of hybrid actions ” to target the European Union. So, is the world seeing a “ new type of war ”, and if so, what does this mean and who stands to gain? As I wrote in an earlier article for The Conversation with Andrew Dowse, “hybrid warfare” is an emerging concept in war and conflict studies. It refers to the use of unconventional methods to disrupt or disable an opponent’s actions to achieve strategic objectives without engaging in open hostilities. Russia’s use of cyberattacks against the west is a good example of this. “Grey-zone” operations are related to hybrid warfare. These are types of coercive actions that are meant to intimidate an opponent, but also fall short of physical conflict.
