The 50-50 Senate is still finely balanced a month out from Election Day, the latest surveys show.The 50-50 Senate is still finely balanced a month out from Election Day, the latest surveys show.
The battle to control the 50-50 Senate is at a stalemate — at least according to the polls.
With 30 days to go until Election Day, polling averages suggest Democrats and Republicans are each poised to win 50 Senate seats. Each party currently has the lead in just one seat currently held by the opposition: The Republican is slightly ahead in Nevada, while the Democrat has the lead in Pennsylvania.
And the polling averages in POLITICO’s four Toss Up races remain tight — including in Georgia, where there’s only been a single, one-day survey conducted since the allegations that GOP nominee Herschel Walker paid for his then-girlfriend’s abortion in 2009.
This is the first weekly check-in on the latest polling in 10 key Senate races this fall. Each capsule includes the current leader in the RealClearPolitics polling average, where the polls stood at this point in the presidential race two years ago, and the eventual winner (and margin of victory) in 2020.
MARK KELLY (D) vs. Blake Masters (R)
POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean Democratic
RCP polling average: Kelly +4.1
2020 RCP polling average 30 days before election: Biden +3.6
Eventual margin: Biden +0.3
Two new polls last week, from CBS News/YouGov and CNN, showed Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly running ahead of Republican Blake Masters by 3 and 6 percentage points, respectively. That’s also the range of Kelly’s leads in the RealClearPolitics average throughout the duration of the race, which has been relatively stable.
Masters has not led a single public poll — after the primary or before it. And this week’s surveys suggested a comeback would be difficult: In the CNN poll, the percentage of likely voters with an unfavorable opinion of Masters was 51 percent — only 35 percent viewed him favorably. That compares to Kelly’s positive favorable-to-unfavorable rating: 48 percent to 42 percent.
MICHAEL BENNET (D) vs. Joe O’Dea (R)
Election Forecast rating: Lean Democratic
RCP polling average: Bennet +8.3
2020 RCP polling average: No average
Eventual margin: Biden +13.5
Last week’s only poll in Colorado was from the Democratic firm Data for Progress, which gave Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet a 9-point lead over Republican Joe O’Dea, 50 percent to 41 percent.
Republicans have held out hope that O’Dea could beat Bennet, who won with just a plurality of the vote in 2010 and 2016. But the race hasn’t come online — and Democrats increasing margins here may be too much for O’Dea to overcome.
MARCO RUBIO (R) vs. Val Demings (D)
Election Forecast rating: Lean Republican
RCP polling average: Rubio +4
2020 RCP polling average: Biden +3.
