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It is the day before the 2022 midterm elections, and it has been an emotional roller coaster for Democrats. If you believe the polls and most of the coverage in the media, Democrats should be bracing for a Republican red wave as they take control of the House and probably the Senate as well. Even some Democratic strategists have been warning of losses as they have bought in to the gloom and doom of the last several weeks. But contrary to this conventional wisdom, Democrats have reason to be hopeful that not all is lost, and this sentiment is based on real data, not just wishful thinking.
In January, most of the prognostications did not give Democrats a prayer in the midterm elections. President Biden’s approval numbers were sinking, and inflation, once believed by the president himself to be temporary, proved to be stubborn and longer-lasting.
Then came the explosive striking down of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court, and the January 6 Committee showed how our democracy is imperiled by the election of office-holders who refuse to concede defeat. Meanwhile, amidst the success in the 2022 Republican primaries of many right-wing extreme election-denying candidates, we started to see a shift in the political fortunes for Democrats. Abortion rights and threats to democracy became key mobilizers for newly registered young women, young voters, communities of color, and some pro-choice Republican women. But the key question even back then was whether this energy fueled by outrage over the Dobbs decision would hold until the midterm elections.
