Can the US and China fight by proxy?
What we are witnessing in Ukraine, and perhaps in a future conflict in Taiwan, is a new model for fighting Cold War 2, one in which the belligerents tacitly agree to fight but only within designated foreign borders. The process of delimiting the allowable combat area has so far been a complex exercise in signaling. For example, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev recently tried to draw some Red Lines: “If Ukraine tries to strike at Crimea, there will be retaliatory strikes, all Ukraine remaining under Kyiv’s rule will burn. The response in the event of strikes in the Crimea and deep into Russia will be quick, tough and convincing. Russia does not set itself any restrictions in the form of a response to attacks, depending on the nature of the threats, it is ready to use all types of weapons. Those who argue that sending weapons to Ukraine will help start negotiations are wrong, the result will be just the opposite.”
But he’s kidding no one. Everything is negotiated. Russia has manifestly set restrictions on itself by not attacking NATO sovereign territory, just as NATO has implicitly discouraged Kyiv from striking targets on Russian territory, except when they are directly linked to attacks on Ukraine. Both sides are fighting under implicitly negotiated rules of engagement, which to the extent they are understood and mutually accepted, have limited escalation so far.
Washington is probably hoping to apply the same framework to the looming conflict with China over Taiwan, which Pentagon leaks indicate may happen by 2025. The area of operations is likely to encompass the Philippines, the Solomon Islands, and indeed any sea/land space in the First Island Chain. A USAF memo defined U.S. defense preparation as “a fortified, ready, integrated, and agile Joint Force Maneuver Team ready to fight and win inside the first island chain.” Implied in this formulation is the unspoken corollary: the Quad Alliance hopes to prevent war from spreading outside the First Island Chain to Guam, Hawaii, Japan, India, and Australia — in the same way that warfare may not spread to NATO countries, at least not without lighting the nuclear fuse.
