By the time you read this, the fast-moving events in Russia may have outpaced this column. The latest reports say that the Wagner Group’s charismatic chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin has announced he is “turning his columns around.” This after his forces came within 100-to-150 miles of Moscow without resistance. Yet something changed. Even if he survives Prigozhin’s efforts at a military coup, Putin has been irreparably weakened, Russia even more so.
By the time you read this, the fast-moving events in Russia may have outpaced this column . . . and Vladimir Putin. The latest reports say that the Wagner Group’s charismatic chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin has announced he is “turning his columns around.” This after his forces came within 100-to-150 miles of Moscow without resistance, indicating Putin’s weakness. Yet something has changed.
Perhaps some in the Russian command had given Prigozhin mixed messages and then chose not to support Prigozhin, i.e., he counted on support that did not materialize. Why else would he begin a military move toward Moscow, triggering the city to mobilize against a coup? You can bet that Putin will purge any military generals he suspects of questionable loyalties, and he will err on the side of caution, so anyone remotely suspected will be demoted, or in some cases imprisoned or even liquidated as an example to others.
We have a game of chicken. Many in the military high command waited for the first domino to fall, but no one wanted to be first, or even in the initial group. Remember, if you start a coup, especially in Russia and against Putin, you must succeed, or you are dead. Meanwhile, Prigozhin anticipated greater support, because he knew of dissatisfaction among some in the Putin military high command, increasingly weary of the Ukraine war, and being scapegoated; and the high command has been embarrassed and humiliated with the number of Russian casualties.
Putin sold the war as a quickie. Not only has that not happened, but Russia has become ostracized and isolated. Putin’s rationale for the war was that Ukraine threatened Russia. Last year, I spoke to one Russian citizen who insisted Ukraine was planning to invade Russia. Prigozhin felt his Wagner Group was having to pick up the pieces for a failed military strategy, and that the Russian military was not adequately supporting his mercenaries. Beyond infighting over military tactics, Prigozhin has publicly denounced Putin’s rationale for the war as a lie. He can’t take back his words that Putin tricked Russian citizens into the war.
But a deal? Putin is unforgiving. Whatever trust that existed between Putin and his former long-time ally Prigozhin is gone. We have reached the point of no return for Prigozhin, who knows that Putin’s modus operandi is assassination. Whatever deal Prigozhin and Putin (or his surrogate) reached is unlikely to hold. At the very least, Ukraine in the short-term is the winner, now that Russia’s disunity has reached such a high profile, further demoralizing Putin’s military.
Some will argue that if Putin remains, he wins because he has made further challengers to him likely to think twice. But Putin is the loser in this chaos in which he is demeaned before the world. What our intelligence community knew is now for the world to see — Putin’s grip on power is tenuous; he lost the oligarchs a long time ago, and loyalty to him among the top military and senior intelligence chiefs is more out of fear than conviction.
If Putin doesn’t take action to consolidate power, he is weak. And the more action he takes to quell dissent, the more he highlights discord. This can be compared to Soviet miscalculation in the Cold War; the authorities finally permitted emigration of Soviet Jews, to get rid of “the troublemakers” and to soften the movement. But the more Jews allowed to emigrate, the more others applied to emigrate. Worse, others in the Soviet Union were emboldened.
Consider Prigozhin’s dilemma. If he goes back into battle against Ukraine, perhaps he keeps his end of a supposed deal, but then he takes casualties, making his forces less formidable in challenging Moscow. This is a truce with Putin that will not help.
