Successive prime ministers have failed to achieve what they see as one of the great dividends offered by Brexit
Liz Truss bowled into Downing Street last summer with a promise to rip up much of what her predecessor Boris Johnson had done. However, one goal remained: she insisted, as Johnson had done, she could deliver a free trade deal with India by Diwali in October.
Whitehall officials were dismayed, therefore, when they received the latest set of demands from Indian negotiators. It was not that New Delhi was asking too much, rather they were not saying what they were asking at all.
“The Indian submission was full of holes,” said one source. “We were not told what tariffs they were willing to grant on whisky, we were not told what they wanted on local sourcing rules – we realised we were a long way from having something signed.”
The deal was not done by Diwali, and is still not ready nearly a year later. With Rishi Sunak travelling to New Delhi this weekend for the G20, some had hoped this prime minister would be able to engineer a breakthrough.
UK government officials are pouring cold water on that idea, however. “This is not the time and the place to do it,” said one.
A trade deal with India was one of the great promises of Brexit. Freed from the shackles of the other 27 EU members, the UK would be able to use its shared history and culture with the world’s most populous country to forge an economic agreement that would redefine British trade.
“In terms of the deals the UK has been doing, this is the one from a long-term economic perspective that could be the most significant,” said Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the political advisory group Flint Global.
The outlines of a deal were clear. The UK wanted lower tariffs on whisky and cars, while the Indians wanted to reduce them on textiles, and secure more visas for their workers and students. The two countries have different areas of industrial specialism, so would not need to protect domestic companies from foreign competition.
In reality,the past 18 months have been plagued by recalcitrance, vagueness, shifting ambitions and political events.
If British ministers thought Brexit was the main impediment to signing trade deals with fast-growing developing countries, they have been thoroughly disabused.
“India negotiates as if it is a country with one billion people, which it is,” said Lowe. “In the UK discourse, it is the big UK negotiating with little India.
