On September 13, we’ll receive Consumer Price Index data as an update on August’s inflation rates, coming after broadly encouraging data for the prior two months.
On September 13, we’ll receive Consumer Price Index data for August, after broadly encouraging data for the prior two months.
In recent statements, Federal Reserve officials have largely downplayed the chances of an interest rate hike on September 20. However, September and October’s CPI numbers in combination will inform whether the Fed decides to make what might be a final increase in short-term rates on November 1.
The bond market doesn’t see a November hike as too likely, giving it about, a 1 in 3 chance currently, but if the next two CPI reports show inflation running hot, especially in the service and shelter categories that the Fed is watching closely, then the chance of a November hike could increase. Nowcasts, currently estimate that the month-on-month inflation rate could accelerate in the two upcoming CPI releases and it remains to be seen what the Fed will tolerate before another potential interest rate hike.Nowcasts
Nowcasts of CPI inflation as estimated by researchers the Cleveland Fed is calling for a sharp spike in the month-on-month inflation in August CPI to almost 0.
