Our world is much larger now. “America First” means putting our interests first, but it cannot mean recourse to “isolationism.”
Russia recently placed Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas on a “wanted” list, accusing her of “crimes” that include the destruction of Soviet-era monuments in memory of Soviet soldiers in Estonia — a significant escalation in Putin’s pressure campaign in Eastern Europe. In the Estonian parliamentary system, Kallas is the head of the government, the person empowered to lead the country (the president is merely a ceremonial figurehead). Targeting her as a “criminal” represents a major step for several reasons, she not only has a senior governmental position, but she is also well-connected throughout the EU and NATO communities, well-spoken in English, French, and Russian, and widely identified as one of Europe’s most dedicated and articulate supporters of the Ukrainian cause. ( Alexei Navalny’s Death Is Not the Most Outrageous Demise Today)
When Kallas speaks — and she has spoken with great frequency and passion regarding the threat from Putin’s Russia — her voice reaches well beyond what one might expect from the leader of a country roughly the size of Vermont or New Hampshire. One might mock the “crimes” she is accused of or dismiss them as simply yet another example of random bluster from Putin, but this would be a grievous error. Viewing what happens to Putin’s enemies — for example, the death of Alexei Navalny — one hopes that Prime Minister Kallas has a very good security detail.
Regardless of the personal threat to Kallas, this Russian threat, and similar ones aimed at officials in Latvia and Lithuania, signal that the ground is being prepared for a Russian attack on the Baltic states. As we’ve seen before in Ukraine and elsewhere, an attempt to criminalize a country’s leaders and institutions represents the preparatory stage for, first, escalating subversion and, eventually, an outright attack.Moving In on the Baltic States
When might this attack take place? A recent and widely publicized report from Estonia’s foreign intelligence service suggests that the Russian military threat is already materializing. How soon and to what extent remains, in large part, a function of what Russia will be able to set aside while continuing its war with Ukraine, but the report posits the emergence of a significant threat within the next decade and, were Ukraine to collapse, the threat could come much sooner — perhaps in as little as three years, timed to take advantage of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, frequently mooted for 2027. It’s not for nothing that tiny Estonia, in addition to ramping up its own military expenditures and training posture, has also diverted scarce weaponry to Ukraine, which they believe is fighting NATO’s fight. Like the other “frontline” NATO members, its defense spending is above the much-discussed 2 percent of GDP target.
Unfortunately, an attack on Estonia might not begin with Russian tanks rolling across the Narva bridge. More likely there would be a first phase — a “gray zone” that combined cyber attacks and terrorist actions conducted by the proverbial “little green men.” After the debacle of its march on Moscow, the Wagner group was allowed to relocate to bases in Belarus, strategically placing it near Poland and the Baltic states. Moreover, each of the Baltic states has a substantial minority Russian population, the legacy of Stalin-era forcible relocations and outright colonization. Subversion and destabilization, after all, have become the coinage of Russia’s way of war.
A further component might be called “de-legitimization.” While Putin assured Tucker Carlson that he had no interest in attacking the Baltic states or Poland, Prime Minister Kallas was being threatened by the Russian state. Repeatedly, and in all three Baltic states, the Russian government has promoted a narrative in which the Russian minorities are suffering various forms of mistreatment. The template being used is precisely the same as the one used in Ukraine: Undermine the legitimacy of the government, attack the culture as “racist,” “Nazi,” or simply “corrupt,” and then invent provocations that might justify the invocation of Joe Biden’s infamous “minor incursion.” ( Putin Loves Biden)
The salient difference between Estonia (and its equally vulnerable Baltic neighbors, Latvia, and Lithuania) and Ukraine is that, unlike Ukraine, it is a NATO member, and, under Article 5, an attack on it constitutes an attack on all NATO members, including the United States.
