Trump and Biden remain virtually tied, as Trump’s early polling lead slips—but polls suggest Trump could still have an edge in some swing states.
Topline
Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are in a neck-and-neck contest headed into the November election, polls show, as voters concerns about the economy—and their dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the issue—are a driving force in this year’s election.Key Facts
Trump would beat Biden in five of six battleground states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada), with Biden leading slightly in Wisconsin, according to a New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll conducted in April and released May 13 that found the economy, immigration, abortion and inflation are the top issues for voters, in that order, while a majority trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy, crime and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but trust Biden more than Trump on abortion.
Morning Consult’s weekly poll taken May 3-5 shows Trump leading Biden by one point, after the previous poll showed them tied at 43%.
In a USA Today/Suffolk University poll released May 6, Trump and Biden are tied, but Trump has lost support among voters under 35 Hispanic voters and independents since January, while Biden has gained support among voters under 35, independents and Black voters (the share of Black voters who support Trump and Hispanic voters who support Biden hasn’t changed, according to the poll, which included third-party candidates as options).
An April Marist poll was among the latest to show Biden beating Trump 51% to 48% in a two-way race—a one-point swing in the head-to-head matchup since the last Marist/NPR/PBS NewsHour poll in early April—and widening his lead to five points when the three third-party candidates are in the mix—a three-point swing in Biden’s favor.
