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There’s no normal sense of the word in which Hamas‘ experience at the hands of Israel since 10/7 could be called a win. On the ground, Hamas has lost thousands of fighters since Israel invaded Gaza. The exact number is unknown but Israel claimed several months ago that the total number of Hamas fighters killed was over 10,000. The IDF recently upgraded that claim to 15,000. Hamas has denied both claims but last month Politico reported that US estimates were that 30-35 percent of Hamas‘ initial force of 35,000 had been killed. That puts the number of fighters killed in the 10-12,000 range.
That doesn’t sound like victory to me but for Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader believed to be the mastermind behind the 10/7 attack, he still seems to believe his side is winning. Sinwar is hiding in the tunnels somewhere deep beneath Rafah, though his exact location is unknown. According to recent reporting by the Wall Street Journal, he wants to drag the fighting out as long as possible because he thinks Israel is losing.
“Time, tunnels and hostages [are] giving Sinwar the feeling that he doesn’t have to [do a deal],” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, referring to the military advantage that the large underground network of tunnels has been for Hamas and its ability to fight an insurgency.
According to Arab mediators dealing with Hamas, Sinwar believes that he has already won the war, whether or not he survives it, by opening the world’s eyes to the suffering of Palestinians and bringing the conflict to the forefront of global affairs.
Sinwar’s aim in the long run, the mediators say, is to lift the siege of the strip, end Israeli military pressure on Hamas and ensure the group’s survival. The group is seeking international “guarantees” for any cease-fire, another gambit to ensure its survival after the war. The U.S., Qatar and Egypt would be the guarantors of the proposed deal, but Hamas has said this isn’t enough, according to the mediators.
In some of the communications relayed by the military wing to Arab mediators, Sinwar indicated that time was on his side and that the longer he waits, the more international pressure builds on Israel and its activities in Gaza.
