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Discover more on RealClearPolitics
Discover more on RealClearPolitics
Discover more on RealClearPolitics
With the Democrats’ Chicago convention behind us, we’re finally on our way to the final stretch of the 2024 election. Vice President Kamala Harris begins this phase of the race with a 1.5-point lead in the RCP Average. What does this mean in terms of November? I think there are three big questions that will determine the outcome of the election.
Question 1: What happens after the thrill is gone? One thing pollsters whom I talk to agree on is this: Democratic Party enthusiasm is through the roof right now. Why wouldn’t it be? They’ve just survived a near-death experience with a candidate few of them were excited about in the first place. They have a fresh candidate who chose a running mate the party adores. She leads in the polls, the first time that has happened for a Democratic presidential candidate in almost a year.
And yet.
That surge in enthusiasm is a problem for polls. Basically, it’s more difficult to poll during periods of unbalanced enthusiasm, because partisans become asymmetrically willing to speak with pollsters in the first place. Moreover, Harris won’t have good news cycles forever. Her policy proposal for price controls landed with a thud, and sooner or later she will have to either embrace or attempt to back off a host of policy proposals that she made while running for president in 2019.
