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Have the Democrats learned their lesson from 2016 and 2020? In both presidential contests, Democrats predicted relatively easy victories for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. But when the votes were counted, Hillary Clinton had been defeated and Joe Biden just eked out a narrow and, for some, controversial victory.
Now, Democrats are looking at Kamala Harris’s lead in several swing states and fear a similar scenario is unfolding.
“Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016. And that’s one of the truths, is that Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s absolutely the truth,” Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) said when asked whether pollsters may be undercounting Trump’s support in Pennsylvania.
Part of the problem is that many Americans, including a large number of Republicans, refuse to respond when the pollsters call. That presents a huge problem for pollsters who must „weight“ the responses they get to receive an accurate picture of the race: fewer GOP responses mean a less accurate poll.
There’s also a problem with being able to contact enough respondents who no longer use landlines and block pollsters on their mobile phones. Pollsters are trying texts and QR codes to fill out their surveys but in 2024, it’s still a major issue.
„There’s no way anymore to get a representative sample of the U.
