Statistician predicts Trump will win the election despite being behind in the polls, Electoral College forecast, and the popular vote.
Nate Silver has placed Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris in terms of his chances of winning the election, according to his latest election forecast on October 19.
Despite trailing Harris in the national polls, the share of the popular vote, and projected Electoral College vote victories, the Silver Bulletin has predicted Trump has a higher chance of winning, at 51% to Harris‘ 49%.
In his Silver Bulletin post on Saturday about this incongruence, Silver wrote, „Needless to say, stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning. And in America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close, and a candidate is rarely out of the running.“
Newsweek reached out to Silver for comment via email outside of business hours on Sunday.
