The race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is essentially tied with just four weeks to go until Election Day. But let’s dig a little deeper.
The ups and downs, ebbs and flows, bumps and slumps that have characterized this unpredictable and chaotic campaign season seem to have stabilized. Credible polling indicates that with four weeks until Election Day, the 2024 presidential contest is tied nationally and tighter than a tick in the seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. According to the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average, neither candidate is up by more than 1 point in these battlegrounds. In six of the seven, the margin is either less than 1 point or in an exact tie.
Some internal polling shows former President Trump gaining ground in Wisconsin and in must-win Pennsylvania, our „reach state“ in 2016 and one that remains poised to help decide the presidency this year.
Trump is experiencing his best polling in the three times he has been the Republican nominee. Nationally, the latest RCP average shows Harris up by only 2.0%. That is quite a contrast from 2020, where Joe Biden led by 10%, and in 2016, which showed Hillary Clinton up by 5.8%. Trump could be headed for a „narrow landslide.“
RealClearPolitics (RealClearPolitics – Live Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls) posts a chart daily showing the polling averages nationwide and in the swing states on „This Day in History“ comparing 2016, 2020, and 2024 polling. Sure, it illustrates flawed and agenda-driven polling by media outlets and academic institutions, but it also exposes the vulnerabilities Harris has relative to Biden and Clinton at this same stage.
For 35 years as a pollster, I’ve been urging people to dig beyond the horserace numbers and examine the fundamentals of what’s driving voter opinion and what the truly 5% undecideds wish to see, read and hear to help them settle on a candidate. Let’s dig into a few of them.
In the same CNN national poll, 41% of likely voters said the economy was their most important issue, followed by protecting democracy (21%), and immigration (12%). Likely voters trust Trump over Harris on the economy (50% vs. 39%), immigration (49% vs. 35%), and foreign policy (47% vs. 40%). Even among those who find Trump’s policies „too extreme“ (yes, CNN asked that questions), 15% trust him more on the economy and immigration These voters are a good example of what we saw in 2016: We complain, kvetch and converse according to what offends us, but we vote according to what affects us.
Harris’ problem of being both ill-defined on issues but well-defined on transparency were revealed in a recent Fox News national poll.
