Biden flipped Michigan in the 2020 election.
Topline
A new survey shows Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of former President Donald Trump by three points in Michigan, as the race remains razor-thin in the three “blue wall” states that could solidify a win for either candidate in November.Key Facts
Harris leads Trump 49%-46% in Quinnipiac University’s poll of likely voters published Wednesday, reversing Trump’s fortunes after a poll earlier this month showed him up 50%-47% (margin of error 2.9 points, and respondents could choose third-party candidates).
The vice president is also ahead 49%-47%, according to a -Schar School poll of likely voters released Monday (margin of error 4.6), and she led 49%-47% in a recent Wall Street Journal poll.
Despite a handful of good surveys for Harris in recent weeks, most poll trackers show an increasingly tight race in Michigan, a key state given its 15 electoral votes: She’s up 0.5 points in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin and 0.6 point in FiveThirtyEight’s average, while Trump is ahead by 0.6 points in RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker.
Models by FiveThirtyEight and statistician Nate Silver give Harris the narrowest of edges in Michigan, estimating a just-under-55% chance she’ll win the state.
Harris’ clearest path to victory runs through Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, known as the “blue wall” states—if she wins all three, which account for 44 electoral votes, plus all of the other non-swing states won by Biden in 2020, she’ll reach the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the election.
Biden won Michigan by three points in 2020, after Hillary Clinton lost to Trump there in 2016 by less than a point, making her the first Democrat to lose to a Republican presidential candidate in Michigan since 1988. Big Number
1.8 points. That’s Harris’ lead in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.What Are The Key Demographic Groups In Michigan?
The Harris campaign is largely tying its success to improved numbers among Black and white working-class voters in Michigan—home to the largest Black-majority city in the U.
