Pennsylvania has voted for 10 of the last 12 White House winners.
Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris has an almost two-point lead in Pennsylvania over former President Donald Trump in a new poll out Wednesday, while polling averages show less than a one-point margin between the two in the crucial swing state.Key Facts
Harris leads Trump 50%-48.2% among likely voters in a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey out Wednesday (the margin of error was three points).
Harris is also ahead two points, 49% to 47%, in a /Schar School poll of likely voters published Monday (margin of error 4.6).
Harris led Trump by three points, 50%-47%, in a pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls released Oct. 12, while Trump was up 47%-46% in a Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters who said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for either candidate.
Trump maintained his one-point lead in an Emerson College survey released Oct. 10, but Harris lead by three points in a Quinnipiac poll released Oct. 9.
The polling averages are close to tied: Trump leads by 0.2 points in Pennsylvania in FiveThirtyEight’s average and 0.5 points in RealClearPolitics’ average, and statistician Nate Silver says the two candidates are even—as Silver gives Trump a 52.1% chance of winning the state.
Pennsylvania has more electoral votes, 19, than any other battleground, and Pennsylvanians routinely pick winners, voting for 10 of the last 12 White House winners—the candidate who has won Pennsylvania has also won Michigan and Wisconsin (the three states together are known as the “blue wall”) in the past eight elections.
Pennsylvania is far more likely to tip the election than any other battleground state, according to Silver’s election forecasting model, which also found both candidates have a more than 85% chance of winning the election if they secure Pennsylvania.
