Pennsylvania has voted for 10 of the last 12 White House winners.
Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are within one percentage point of each other in four new polls of Pennsylvania this week, as the race remains essentially even in the swing state that’s likely to decide the winner of the 2024 election.Key Facts
Trump is up 50%-49% in a two-way Fox News poll of likely Pennsylvania voters out Wednesday—well within the three-point margin of error—while the candidates are tied at 48% if respondents could pick third-party candidates (some 3% of voters chose another candidate).
Trump also has a 47%-46% lead in a Quinnipiac poll published Wednesday (margin of error 2.1 points, and respondents could choose other candidates), though Harris holds a narrow 49%-48% edge in a Cooperative Election Study poll released this week (3,685 respondents, polled as part of a national study by universities conducted by YouGov).
Meanwhile, the candidates are tied at 48% in a CNN/SSRS poll out Wednesday—and only 8% said they’re undecided or may change their minds.
Last week, Harris led Trump 50%-48.2% among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey (margin of error 3), and Harris was ahead 49%-47% in a /Schar School poll (margin of error 4.6), while Trump was up 49%-48% in an Emerson poll (margin of error 3.4).
Earlier this month, Harris led Trump by three points, 50%-47%, in a pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls released Oct. 12, while Trump was up 47%-46% in a Sept. 28-Oct. 8 Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters who said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for either candidate.
The polling averages are close to tied, with a narrow Trump edge: Trump leads by 0.
