These counties will help tell the story of how either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will become the next president.
In the 2020 presidential election, the country was stretched ideologically and demographically. From 2012 to 2016, more than 200 counties flipped from former President Barack Obama to former President Donald Trump. In 2020, less than half that number changed hands from Trump to President Biden.
Biden won by bigger margins in cities, and Trump drove up turnout and margins in rural areas. Biden was able to win because of his strength in the suburbs and the shift of white voters with college degrees toward the Democratic Party in the Trump era — something Vice President Harris wants to try to replicate.
But there’s no guarantee that will happen again, especially as Trump has made efforts to peel off portions of traditionally Democratic groups, like young men, young Black men and working-class Latinos.
Below is a guide to the counties to keep an eye on in each of the seven swing states as returns roll in on election night and in the days afterward. These counties will help explain why the next president won. (Source for county vote data comes from the U.S. Election Atlas.)
Jump to a state: Pennsylvania | Wisconsin | Michigan | North Carolina | Georgia | Arizona | NevadaPennsylvania
19 electoral votes
2020 margin: D+1.18 (82,166 votes)
1. Montgomery: The most populous Philadelphia suburban county, Biden netted 40,000 more votes there in 2020 than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. Harris has to try to match that in order to win this important state. Biden saw a 120,000-vote shift statewide in his favor — 105,000 of that came from just the four suburban Philadelphia counties (Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware and Chester), which are among the highest educated, wealthiest and most populated counties in the state. Though they voted overwhelmingly for Biden in 2020, Trump can’t ignore them because he’s expected to get a significant share of votes from them, too. Harris would also like to do at least as well as Biden did in Philadelphia proper, where Democrats have seen a slight decline in their vote share since Obama was on the ballot (85% in 2012, 82% in 2016 and 81% in 2020).
2. Allegheny (and surrounding area): Biden won this county, where Pittsburgh is, in 2020. He netted nearly 40,000 more votes out of Allegheny than Clinton did four years earlier. Harris will need to try to replicate Biden’s performance because in all the counties that touch Allegheny, including Butler where Trump was shot, Trump won handily.
3. Cumberland: Trump won this central Pennsylvania county with 55%. It’s a mix of suburban and rural and sits just across the river from the state capital of Harrisburg. Biden was able to cut into Trump’s margins, netting 7,000 more votes than Clinton pulled from Trump in 2016. Biden’s 44% in the county in 2020 was the best for a Democrat since 1964. Cumberland has seen a 15% population increase since 2010, has the highest median income outside the Philadelphia collar counties and the seventh-highest college attainment of any county in the state. It’s the county with the highest level of college attainment that went Republican.
4. Lackawanna: It’s home to Scranton in the northeastern part of the state. Biden was born there and won it by more than Clinton in 2016. But it has been trending away from Democrats in the age of Trump due, in part, to its high blue-collar population.
5. Cambria: This populated, more rural county in the central western part of the state could give some clues about similar places that are crucial to Trump’s support and turnout level with his base. It’s 90% white and below the national average for college attainment and income. Like other more rural counties, it went by more for Trump in 2020 than 2016, despite him losing the state overall.
Boomerang counties*: Erie, Northampton
*Boomerang counties refer to places that went for Obama twice, Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.Wisconsin
10 electoral votes
2020 margin: D+0.63 (20,682 votes)
1. Dane (Madison): This heavily Democratic county, home to Madison and the University of Wisconsin, has seen tremendous growth in the past decade. It accounted for 1 in 6 Democratic votes statewide in 2020, but 80% of the total vote-shift in Biden’s favor.
2. Milwaukee: For Harris to repeat a Democratic win in the state, she’s going to have to drive up turnout in this county. It is the most populous county in the state, is 27% Black, 17% Latino and 5% Asian American. It’s also a critical place for Trump. Milwaukee County gave Trump his second highest vote total of any county outside Waukesha in the Milwaukee suburbs.
3. Waukesha: There are 72 counties in Wisconsin, and nearly 10% of all the votes cast for Trump in 2020 came from this one suburban county just west of Milwaukee. A lot is made of the fact that Trump’s margins of victory were significantly smaller in the “WOW” counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington) surrounding Milwaukee in 2020.
