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Former President Donald Trump has a massive personal stake in the upcoming election, which could either send him back to the White House — or to a courtroom for what could be years of legal proceedings under the looming threat of incarceration.
No other presidential candidate in history has faced the possibility of such drastically different outcomes, in which Trump’s legacy, personal fortune, and individual liberty could be decided by a few thousand swing state voters.
If he returns to the White House, Trump has vowed to fire Jack Smith, the special counsel who has brought two federal cases against him, „within two seconds“; he has said he would punish the prosecutors and judges overseeing his cases; and he will likely avoid serious consequences for any of the criminal charges he continues to face.
„If he wins, say goodbye to all the criminal cases“, said Karen Friedman Agnifilo, who previously served as the chief of the Manhattan district attorney’s trial division.
„The criminal cases are over, whether it’s legally or practically“, added Friedman Agnifilo, who said a Trump victory would be a „get out of jail free card“ for the former president.
If he loses the election, Trump faces years of court proceedings, hundreds of millions in civil penalties, and the possibility of jail time, beginning with the sentencing for his New York criminal case on Nov. 26.
Here is what could happen in each of Trump’s criminal cases.New York hush money case
Trump’s most pressing legal issue following the election is his Nov. 26 sentencing on 34 felony counts for falsifying business records to cover up a 2016 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.
Defense lawyers were able to successfully delay the sentencing twice — first by asking to have the case dismissed based on presidential immunity and the second time by highlighting the political stakes of a pre-election sentencing. Describing Trump’s case as one that „stands alone, in a unique place in this Nation’s history“, New York Judge Juan Merchan opted to delay the sentencing until November to ensure the jury’s verdict would „be respected and addressed in a manner that is not diluted by the enormity of the upcoming presidential election.“
While first-time offenders convicted of falsifying business records normally avoid incarceration, legal experts that the unique factors of Trump’s case — including him being held in criminal contempt ten times and the finding that he falsified business records to influence an election — could push Judge Merchan to impose some prison time. When ABC News surveyed 14 legal experts about Trump’s sentence in June, five believed an incarceratory sentence was likely, two described the decision as a toss-up, and seven believed a prison sentence was unlikely.
The sentencing could still proceed in November if Trump wins the election, though the new circumstances could influence Judge Merchan’s decision, according to Boston College law professor Jeffrey Cohen. Merchan could opt to impose a lighter sentence — such as a day of probation — or opt to delay the sentence until Trump leaves office.
„A sitting president wouldn’t be forced to be incarcerated while they’re serving their presidency, and so he could theoretically serve it once he’s out of office“, said Cohen, who noted that a delayed sentence could incentivize Trump to remain in office as long as possible.
