There’s no clear leader in the seven swing states likely to decide the election.
Topline
The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively a tossup, with the final pre-election polls Sunday and Monday showing the candidates split the seven swing states—and crucial Pennsylvania is virtually tied.Key Facts
Pennsylvania: It almost couldn’t get any closer—Harris leads by 0.2 points in the FiveThirtyEight weighted polling average, while the candidates are tied at 48% in both a New York Times/Siena survey and a Morning Consult poll, and Emerson College has Trump up 49%-48%, but YouGov has Harris leading 48%-46%.
Nevada: This one’s also a tossup—Trump is up by 0.3 points in the FiveThirtyEight average, but the Times/Siena poll shows Harris leading 49%-46% and YouGov has Harris up 48%-47%, while Emerson shows a tie at 48%.
Georgia: It’s a razor-thin Trump edge—he has a 0.7-point lead in FiveThirtyEight’s average, and he leads 50%-49% in Emerson’s polling, 50%-48% in the Morning Consult survey and 48%-46% in YouGov’s poll, but Harris is ahead 48%-47% according to the Times/Siena poll.
North Carolina: Another narrow Trump advantage—he leads by 0.
