Experts debate if the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire will hold, pointing to regional tensions and challenges.
A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah commenced on Nov. 27, 2024, aiming to halt 14 months of hostilities that began in October 2023. The agreement, brokered by the United States and France, mandates a 60-day cessation of violence.
Key provisions include Hezbollah withdrawing its fighters north of the Litani River and Israel gradually pulling back its forces from southern Lebanon. A multinational committee, led by the U.S., will oversee compliance, with Lebanese troops deployed to enforce the terms.
The conflict has inflicted significant losses on both sides. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed, and the group’s military infrastructure suffered considerable damage. Israel has also faced casualties and displacement of civilians in its northern regions.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the ceasefire allows Israel to address other regional threats, including those posed by Iran, while remaining vigilant against potential violations.
Despite the ceasefire, concerns persist about its durability. Past agreements, such as the 2006 U.N. Resolution 1701, failed to fully disarm Hezbollah, leading to skepticism about the current deal’s enforcement. The Lebanese army, weakened by economic challenges, faces difficulties in maintaining stability in the south. Many Lebanese citizens, eager for peace, worry about the potential for renewed conflict.
Newsweek has reached out to regional experts to assess the ceasefire’s prospects and its implications for future stability in the Middle East.Yezid Sayigh, Historian, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut
I doubt that Hezbollah will undermine the ceasefire, as it badly needs respite from the Israeli onslaught. So, the key factor affecting the ceasefire’s durability could be Netanyahu’s political calculus: might there come a moment when he has greater interest in undermining the ceasefire than in preserving it over the coming two months?
On the one hand, he faces significant domestic opposition to the agreement and must maneuver to keep his far-right partners on board so as to secure his tenure as PM and delay facing trial on criminal charges.
