Here’s everything you need to know for Week 14 NFL games. Which teams will win, who are the X factors and which storylines matter most?
The Week 14 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection and a look at the playoff picture. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 14 slate, including an NFC West battle between the Seahawks and Cardinals and Kirk Cousins‘ return to Minnesota. It all ends with a „Monday Night Football“ matchup between the Bengals and Cowboys on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
CLE-PIT | NYJ-MIA | ATL-MIN
NO-NYG | CAR-PHI | JAX-TEN
LV-TB | SEA-ARI | BUF-LAR
CHI-SF | LAC-KC | CIN-DAL
Thursday: DET 34, GB 31
Bye: BAL, DEN, HOU, IND, NE, WSH
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: PIT -6.5 (43.5 O/U)
Browns storyline to watch: Browns defensive end Myles Garrett single-handedly wrecked the Steelers‘ plans on offense in the team’s Week 12 matchup, a Browns win. Garrett recorded three first-half sacks and a forced fumble, which earned him Player of the Week honors. Pittsburgh is sure to have a better plan to limit Garrett, who is looking for a bounce-back game after registering a season-low pressure rate of 3.8% in the Browns‘ Week 13 loss to the Broncos. — Daniel Oyefusi
Steelers storyline to watch: The Steelers lead the league with 25 takeaways, including three in their first matchup against Cleveland. In that game, though, the Steelers managed only seven points off those takeaways. In his five games as the Browns‘ starting quarterback, Jameis Winston has thrown 10 touchdowns to seven interceptions. The key to the Steelers avenging their Week 12 loss is capitalizing on those turnovers with more points. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: Cleveland hasn’t swept the regular-season series with Pittsburgh since 1988 and is looking to win three straight meetings for the first time since a seven-game run from 1986 to 1989.
Bold prediction: Steelers defensive tackle Keeanu Benton will record his first sack of the season. Benton’s 12% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle ranks ninth at the position. The fact he has zero sacks thus far is fluky. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Steelers have pretty much locked up a spot in the playoffs, with a 99.3% chance to make the postseason. But they have a 71% chance at winning the AFC North, with the Ravens lurking at 29%. Read more.
Injuries: Browns | Steelers
Fantasy X factor: Steelers wide receiver George Pickens. Pickens has been on fire, scoring 16-plus fantasy points in four of his past six games while averaging 7.6 targets. His rapport with quarterback Russell Wilson has been a catalyst for this statistical production, and now he faces a Browns defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to receivers. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Browns are 8-4-1 against the spread (ATS) as at least four-point underdogs under coach Kevin Stefanski. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Steelers 24, Browns 20
Moody’s pick: Steelers 24, Browns 10
Walder’s pick: Steelers 23, Browns 14
FPI prediction: PIT, 59.4% (by an average of 3.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jeudy’s Denver return ‚a lot of boos . catches‘ . Steelers OLB Highsmith expected back Sunday . Browns perform noodle game celebration vs. Broncos
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: TEN -3.5 (39.5 O/U)
Jaguars storyline to watch: With Trevor Lawrence on injured reserve (concussion/shoulder), quarterback Mac Jones now begins a five-game audition for a chance to compete for a potential starting job in 2025. It’s going to be tough: The Titans have the league’s top-ranked pass defense (allowing 171.8 yards per game). Jones struggled in his two starts this season, leading the Jaguars to a combined 13 points and 313 yards. — Michael DiRocco
Titans storyline to watch: The Titans‘ run defense was gashed for 264 yards by the Commanders last week. It will be critical for Tennessee to bounce back against the Jaguars, who will be without Lawrence. „We’ve got to get back to stopping the run, populate the line of scrimmage and properly fit out gaps“, defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson said. „We can’t allow what happened last week to happen again. It’s time for us to bow up and show what we really can do against the run game.“ — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: The Jaguars have nine straight road losses dating to last season, which is the longest active streak in the NFL.
Bold prediction: Titans kicker Nick Folk will go 4-for-4 on field goals, including two from 50-plus yards. He has quietly turned into one of the very best kickers in the NFL and is 11-of-12 from 50-plus yards the past two seasons. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Jaguars and Titans are both among the seven teams with the best odds at the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft, per ESPN’s FPI. Jacksonville is in third, currently holding a 20.7% chance at the top selection. Read more.
Injuries: Jaguars | Titans
Fantasy X factor: Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Last week, the revenge game narrative worked out for Browns receiver Jerry Jeudy (40.5 fantasy points against the Broncos). Now, Ridley faces his former team, the Jaguars, who allow the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. He has seen eight or more targets in five of his past eight games. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their past six games. Jones is 3-14 ATS in his past 17 starts. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Titans 24, Jaguars 14
Moody’s pick: Titans 28, Jaguars 14
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 19, Titans 16
FPI prediction: TEN, 58.8% (by an average of 3.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why the Jaguars placed QB Lawrence on injured reserve . WR Burks to miss rest of season with knee injury
Tyler Fulghum explains why he likes the under in the Titans-Jaguars matchup.
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -5.5 (44.5 O/U)
Jets storyline to watch: Aaron Rodgers & Co. still are looking for their first 30-point game. The last time the Jets went this far into the season without scoring 30 in a game was in 2020, when they finished 2-14 with no 30-point games. But history says it won’t happen this week. The offense has scored only three touchdowns in the past six trips to Miami. The Jets‘ last 30-point performance in Miami was in 2014, which also was their last win in South Florida. — Rich Cimini
Dolphins storyline to watch: After last week’s loss to the Packers, the Dolphins probably need to win out to keep their remote playoff hopes alive. Luckily for them, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has never lost to the Jets. The Dolphins‘ lone loss to New York since 2020 came in 2022 when Tagovailoa was injured. Sunday’s game could also be a bounce-back opportunity for a Miami run game that has averaged 63.3 yards per game over the past four weeks. The Jets‘ defense has allowed more than 107.3 rushing yards per game in that same span. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: Rodgers now has 34 consecutive starts with fewer than 300 passing yards. No other quarterback has an active streak of at least 20 starts.
Bold prediction: A Dolphins wide receiver will catch a 40-plus-yard touchdown on a go route or deep fade. Miami has the lowest rate of throws of 20-plus air yards in the league this year, but the Jets run the single-high coverage 64% of the time (third most). The Dolphins could take a shot or two downfield against a struggling Sauce Gardner. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Dolphins‘ chances at the playoffs will increase to 13.8% with a win and drop to 2.3% with a loss (independent of other results), per ESPN Analytics. The Jets would be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss. Read more.
Injuries: Jets | Dolphins
Fantasy X factor: Tagovailoa. The Jets‘ defense has struggled, allowing 24-plus fantasy points to four quarterbacks since Week 6. Tagovailoa has scored 23-plus fantasy points in three straight games. He has the supporting cast and an offensive-minded head coach in Mike McDaniel to take full advantage of this matchup. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jets are 0-3 ATS as underdogs this season and 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games as underdogs. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Dolphins 28, Jets 17
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 24, Jets 20
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 24, Jets 20
FPI prediction: MIA, 57.2% (by an average of 2.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Rodgers: Hope to finish well, but not out to prove anything . Cold weather affected Dolphins, LB Brooks says
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: MIN -6 (45.5 O/U)
Falcons storyline to watch: Quarterback Kirk Cousins is coming off perhaps the worst three-game stretch of his 13-year career going into a road game against his former team. The pressure is certainly on given the Falcons‘ three-game losing streak has cost them their once-commanding NFC South lead. Cousins has six interceptions in the past three games, and the Vikings lead the league in the category (18). — Marc Raimondi
Vikings storyline to watch: Quarterback Sam Darnold’s past three games have been his best of the season, with a combined 811 yards, seven total touchdowns and no interceptions. His performance will be on center stage Sunday as he is playing at a notably higher level than his predecessor, Cousins, and with a $10 million contract that is a fraction of the Falcons QB’s deal. Coach Kevin O’Connell says Darnold is playing with „almost a surgical level of ‚doing my job‘ and not trying to do too much, but also knowing that ‚my job might be to try to put a ball in a tight window here and there.'“ — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Cousins is the first quarterback with zero passing touchdowns and six interceptions in a six-game span since Cleveland’s Brian Hoyer in 2014.
Tyler Fulgham explains why he likes the Falcons plus the points vs. the Vikings.
Bold prediction: Darnold will throw for 300 yards and won’t be sacked. Minnesota has a major advantage in the trenches on offense as it ranks fifth in pass block win rate (68.1%). The Falcons rank 29th in pass rush win rate (32.9%). — Walder
What’s at stake: According to ESPN Analytics, the Falcons have the highest chance at the NFC’s fourth seed (30%), and the Vikings have the highest chance at the fifth seed (49%). Read more.
Injuries: Falcons | Vikings
Fantasy X factor: Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson.
