BANGKOK, Thailand — Experts say that the devastating earthquake in Myanmar on Friday was likely the strongest to hit the country in decades, with disaster modeling suggesting thousands could be
Experts say that the devastating earthquake in Myanmar on Friday was likely the strongest to hit the country in decades, with disaster modeling suggesting thousands could be dead.
Automatic assessments from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) said the shallow 7.7-magnitude quake northwest of the central Myanmar city of Sagaing triggered a red alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses.
“High casualties and extensive damage are probable, and the disaster is likely widespread,” it said, locating the epicenter near the central Myanmar city of Mandalay, home to more than a million people.
Myanmar’s ruling junta said on Saturday morning that the number killed had passed 1,000, with more than 2,000 injured.˝
However, the USGS analysis said there was a 35 percent chance that fatalities could be in the range of 10,000 to 100,000 people.
The USGS offered a similar likelihood that the financial damage could total tens of thousands of millions of dollars, warning that it might exceed the GDP of Myanmar.
Weak infrastructure will complicate relief efforts in the isolated, military-ruled state, where rescue services and the healthcare system have already been ravaged by four years of civil war sparked by a military coup in 2021.
Bill McGuire, emeritus professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London (UCL), said it was “probably the biggest earthquake on the Myanmar mainland in three-quarters of a century”.
A 6.7-magnitude aftershock struck minutes after the first, and McGuire warned that “more can be expected.”
Rebecca Bell, a tectonics expert at Imperial College London (ICL), suggested it was a side-to-side “strike-slip” of the Sagaing Fault.
