Here’s a likely sequence of things to follow, and what it means for the stock market.
34% tariffs. China retaliates. Trump goes out with 52%. Then 104%. The US-China trade war is in full swing, sure.
But this isn’t about tariffs or U.S. and China anymore – this is about President Trump and President Xi Jinping.How does this end?
Here is one sequence of events: U.S. legislators and the Senate pass a resolution to declare tariffs invalid. The Supreme Court backs them up. Things return to normal. And this takes all of 30 days or less.
While we see this as a likely sequence, the ‘30 days or less’ timing of it is just wishful thinking. A 30-day timeline looks too short. It’s likely going to take way longer than 30 days and things will get worse before normalcy returns. See our analysis – S&P to drop 40%.Now why will it take longer than 30 days?
What’s really needed as a start is a groundswell of public outcry against tariffs. Support from tens of millions – no hundred million plus Americans. A voice – a vote so clear against tariffs that business and community leaders join and then lead, and grow the voice.
