Democrats simply do not have as many opportunities to pick up seats through gerrymandering
Republicans are kicking off a gerrymandering arms race that Democrats can’t win, according to the analysis of most election watchers. The question now is whether Democrats can generate enough seats to give them a chance to retake the House in the future.
With the return of most Texas Democrats, Republicans in the state are on the verge of delivering a new House map that would give their party another five seats that President Donald Trump would have comfortably carried in the 2024 election, and which Republicans are likely to win in the 2026 midterm elections.
The move is part of a larger Republican plot to rewrite the rules concerning House apportionment and district drawing that’s aimed at isolating the GOP’s governing majority from the will of the voters.
In the realm of redistricting, however, Democrats can potentially use the power they wield in states that they govern to give themselves more seats that they’re likely to win in the 2026 midterm elections. These could serve to offset some of the gains Republicans are set to make through redistricting. The problem for Democrats is that, compared to the GOP, there are fewer opportunities to game the system.
Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Salon, “Republicans are likely going to come out ahead if the re-redistricting wars escalate, but the question is how much.
