Over a dozen states are locked in a standoff over the maps that could decide which party takes control of Congress in 2027.
With over a dozen states weighing up the idea of redrawing their district boundaries ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, Newsweek has mapped out the seats that could change hands if legislatures let fly.
Some of the largest states in the union are currently engaged in a cold war over the House of Representatives, which the Republicans hold with a single-digits majority.
At President Donald Trump’s instruction, Texas legislators proposed a rare mid-decade congressional map change in a bid to maintain this hold, with five seats in Democratic areas redrawn into likely Republican gains.
In response, governors of Democratic states have threatened to take their own pound of flesh, with California’s Gavin Newsom, New York’s Kathy Hochul, and Illinois‘ JB Pritzker all promising to redraw their own states‘ already-small Republican districts if Texas goes ahead.
But how viable are these threats, and what would the 2026 election look like if everyone made good on them?
Which States Could be Redistricted?Texas
Last week, Trump claimed that Republicans were „entitled to five more seats“ in the Lone Star state. On Wednesday, GOP state legislators answered the call, proposing a new map that would condense Democratic areas even further. The new boundaries would mean that five blue seats in Texas would be at risk of flipping, endangering Democratic lawmakers in the Rio Grande Valley, where many Latino voters have traditionally backed Democrats.California
In retaliation, California Governor Gavin Newsom said, „California will not sit by idly and watch this democracy waste away“, and threatened to match the Republican gains with redistricting of his own. The seats held by Republicans Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, Kevin Kiley, David Valadao and Doug LaMalfa in particular were highlighted as the five that would be targeted in the trade-off.Missouri
Missouri’s Republican Governor Mike Kehoe weighed in on Fox News on Tuesday, saying that he was open to the idea of redistricting.
