In this excerpt from his new book, John Gertz argues it’s time to ditch SETI’s old dogmas and rethink how we prepare for first contact.
Editor’s note: The following is an excerpt from Reinventing SETI: New Directions in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, published by Oxford University Press in August 2025. John Gertz is the president and CEO of Zorro Productions, Inc., and a former chairman of the board of the SETI Institute. In his book, Gertz argues that humanity should rethink the search for intelligent life by rejecting outdated paradigms like the Drake Equation, the Fermi Paradox, and the idea of actively broadcasting messages to the stars (a controversial idea known as METI—Messages to Extraterrestrial Intelligence). He argues that instead of expecting alien civilizations to arrive in person, we should prepare for robotic probes that may already be present in our solar system—and start planning for how Earth might respond to first contact. The book presents a new view of the SETI endeavor while offering a roadmap of its future.
It is not at all a given that aliens are far away.
Alien probes might be surveilling us closely right now from within our own solar system, deciding whether to open a channel of communication with Earth or, pursuant to the very poor impressions that they may have already garnered from our nightly news, destroy us forthwith as a wretched species that, if allowed to persist, might eventually become a danger to the whole galaxy. If Judgement Day is in fact well-nigh, our fate may well be in the hands not of a deity, but of algorithms embedded within these robotic probes possessed of artificial intelligence. They may have even less concern or empathy toward us than we have toward cockroaches or weeds.
So, will our first encounter with ET augur our salvation or our destruction? Will ET be benign or hostile? Let’s examine the sum total of hard evidence. Here it is:
Yep, that’s the evidence. Nada. A blank space. No actual evidence whatsoever.
That does not mean that SETI theorists have not taken stances without hard evidence for or against the proposition that ET will be aggressive.
Optimists have argued that alien civilizations will early on in their development acquire the scientific and technical experience to build atomic bombs and other weapons of mass destruction, just as we have. Those civilizations that are inherently aggressive will shortly thereafter self-destruct, leaving only the peaceful civilizations to persist long enough to make contact with the likes of us.
Altruism and kindness are hardwired into all social species. Sociobiologists argue that because our genes strive to pass themselves down through the generations, they will cause their vessels, our bodies, to risk even certain death in order to perpetuate the lives of direct offspring, take large risks for brothers and sisters, take smaller risks in the defense of cousins, and not lift a finger to help a total stranger.
