Democrats took a big gamble on the government shutdown — and polls suggest they have a surprisingly strong hand so far.
Political scientists and polling experts have pointed out that in previous government shutdowns (or near shutdowns) the party that tries to leverage the government’s closure for a policy win typically loses the battle of public opinion. But recent polling data suggests that Democrats are, at least for now, looking unusually strong in their quest to force Republicans to make concessions on health care policy.
More specifically, Democrats are withholding votes for a government funding bill to try to force GOP lawmakers to agree to an extension of expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies and a repeal of the Medicaid cuts. (Their alternate bill also limits Trump’s ability to freeze or rescind congressionally appropriated funding, and restores money for public broadcasting.) Those are big, and some might even say, quixotic, demands. But so far, the anomalous political dynamics of Trump’s second term seems to have given Democrats an unusual advantage — and that could bode well for their fortunes in next year’s midterm elections.A shutdown likely scans to the average person as more contiguous with the president’s wants than his opposition’s.
During past shutdowns or near-shutdowns, voters have typically blamed the party not in the White House — except for when Trump himself instigated a shutdown in late 2018. This time, the polls look different. A poll conducted on Oct. 1, the first day of the shutdown, found that the Democrats were looking strikingly strong: 47% of U.S. adults blamed Trump and Republicans in Congress, while 30% blamed Democrats and 23% said they weren’t sure.
