Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli 52% to 45% in New Jersey’s gubernatorial race, with more voters opposing Trump than supporting him.
President Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot this year, but New Jersey voters are sending him a message. More are negative toward Trump than positive by 11 percentage points, and more than twice as many say their vote in this year’s gubernatorial race will be to express opposition to the president rather than to show support.
That helps Democrat Mikie Sherrill best Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 52% to 45% heading into the last few days of the campaign, according to a Fox News poll of New Jersey likely voters. Her 7-point lead is just outside the poll’s margin of sampling error. Earlier this month, Sherrill was ahead by 5 points, and in September she was up by 8 points.
„It’s a cliché, but it’s true, this race is all about turnout, so the big question is whether Trump supporters show up when he’s not on the ballot“, says Daron Shaw, a Republican who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. „Sherrill’s supporters seem like they are going to turn out, but the evidence is mixed for those backing Ciattarelli. If the MAGA base comes around during this final weekend, the Democratic advantage narrows considerably.“
This analysis is among likely voters.
Among those who say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting this year, Ciattarelli is ahead by 5 points – but among those either extremely or very enthusiastic, it’s Sherrill by 4. That’s because more Republicans feel extremely enthusiastic (52%) than Democrats (40%).
Some 93% of Ciattarelli’s backers feel certain they will vote for him compared to 91% for Sherrill, while 8% overall say they could switch their pick before voting. Only 3% say they will vote for someone other than these two major party candidates or are undecided on their choice.
There’s a 17-point gender gap, as Sherrill leads by 16 points among women, while it’s Ciattarelli +1 point among men.
