Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani’s chances of beating independent candidate Andrew Cuomo in New York City’s mayoral race appear to be
Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani’s chances of beating independent candidate Andrew Cuomo in New York City’s mayoral race appear to be strongly correlated with the level of support for longshot Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, according to a spate of recent polling.
Two polls released Thursday show that Mamdani, a self-avowed socialist, enjoys wide leads over Cuomo, the former Democratic Governor of New York, and Sliwa in the city’s mayoral race. On the other hand, a Suffolk University poll released on Monday — in which Sliwa polled lower than in the two more recent polls — found that Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo was only 10 points.
An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey released on Thursday found that Mamdani secured a 25-point lead over Cuomo, 50% to 25%, while 21% of voters backed Sliwa and 4% were undecided. Compared to a separate Emerson College poll released on Sept. 10, support for Mamdani in the mayoral election rose by seven percentage points, from 43% to 50%.
“Mamdani appears to have built a coalition across key demographics, increasing his margin among Black voters since last month, from 50% to 71%, whereas Cuomo dropped ten points among Black voters since September,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement. “Mamdani continues to have a base of young voters; 69% of voters under 50 support him, whereas 37% of voters over 50 support Mamdani, while 31% support Cuomo and 28% [Sliwa].”
Meanwhile, a Marist University poll published on Thursday showed that Mamdani leading with 48% support, Cuomo gained 32% of the vote, Sliwa receiving 16% support and 3% reported they were undecided.
