Is Allen a prime MVP candidate again? Has the AFC West torch been passed? We overreact to Week 11, plus fantasy football takes.
DENVER — The Chiefs and Broncos spent the first half circling each other like prizefighters, fully cognizant of the stakes and being careful not to make the devastating mistake. It was 6-6 at halftime — two field goals apiece, nothing to indicate which way it would go.
In the second half, they started throwing haymakers. And scoring touchdowns. They ended up delivering a classic rivalry game that turned on a sack by Broncos defensive back Ja’Quan McMillian — his second of the game, to go with an interception — and ended when Broncos kicker Wil Lutz made a 35-yard field goal as time ran out for a 22-19 Denver victory.
Coincidentally, it was the same length field goal attempt by Lutz that was blocked as time ran out in Kansas City last year to deliver the Broncos their most heartbreaking loss of the 2024 season. But this isn’t last year. The Broncos were 1-6 in one-score games last season. They’re 7-2 in them this year. The Chiefs were 11-0 in one-score games last season. They’re 0-5 in them this year.
„I’d be lying if I didn’t say it was a big win“, Broncos coach Sean Payton said when it was over. It’s maybe the biggest any team had in Week 11 when you factor in the history and the circumstances.
The Broncos now head into their bye week with a two-game division lead over the Chargers and a 3.5-game advantage over the Chiefs, who have won the AFC West nine years in a row, with six games left in their season. So while we sort through the Week 11 overreactions to try to figure out which ones might hold up and which ones are mirages, it seems right to start things in Denver.
Jump to:
Chiefs‘ AFC West championship run over?
Offensive line to cost Chargers the playoffs?
Is Allen the MVP favorite again?
Do Rams have their best team of Stafford era?
Garrett will shatter single-season sacks record?
Fantasy-related overreactions
Not only is Kansas City 5-5, but it has lost two in a row to AFC contenders Buffalo and Denver. Those games were wrapped around the Chiefs‘ bye week, which makes Sunday’s result even more remarkable because it drops coach Andy Reid’s record to 22-5 coming off a bye.
Kansas City enters Week 12 on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. The Chiefs are only a game behind the Jaguars, who would be the seventh seed if the playoffs started today, but they lost to them, too, so the Chiefs are in effect two games behind Jacksonville.
The Broncos take down the Chiefs on the back of a Wil Lutz’s field goal as time expires.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Chiefs have a ton of work to do just to get a wild-card spot. Sunday’s result makes the math incredibly daunting in terms of extending their division title streak to an even decade. The Chiefs are also 1.5 games behind the second-place Chargers in the AFC West and lost to them in Week 1, so they’d be behind Los Angeles in the head-to-head tiebreaker, too (though they do play both the Chargers and the Broncos one more time). But the main reason this isn’t an overreaction is because the Broncos deserve their respect.
Sure, second-year QB Bo Nix is erratic, but he has been nails in the fourth quarter, which is a heck of a foundation while he develops into a more stable quarterback. And Denver’s defense is very clearly championship-caliber. It recorded three more sacks Sunday to give the Broncos a staggering 49 through 11 games, which has them on pace to break the 1984 Bears‘ single-season record. They’re a nightmare to play against, even without reigning Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II and leading tackler Alex Singleton, neither of whom played Sunday.
If defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s group continues to play like this, the offense can afford to be in-and-out and rescue games in the fourth quarter. The Broncos have won eight games in a row and trailed in all of them. This is who they are and how they win, and they go into their bye in an extremely good spot.
