It could take a few hours — or a few weeks — to sort out who wins control of Congress after Tuesday’s midterm elections. Here’s an in-depth, hour-by-hour look at poll closings and early indicators.
The first polls close (6 p.m. ET)
Polls close at 6 p.m. ET in most of Indiana and Kentucky. Parts of both states are in the Central time zone, so it’ll take time to see whether Indiana Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly survives a challenge from Republican businessman Mike Braun.
The one we’ll all be talking about first: Kentucky’s 6th District. Amy McGrath, a former combat pilot, is challenging Republican Rep. Andy Barr.
It might not be a great national bellwether. In an unusual twist — in part due to the brutal ads Barr has aired — the race has largely become about McGrath and whether she is too progressive for the district, rather than a referendum on Trump or the incumbent congressman. But it will be an early indicator of the environment, and a Barr loss would give Republicans reason to panic.
Expect to see McGrath up early as the city of Lexington’s results come in first — but the margin is likely to tighten up quickly.
The early indicators (7-7:30 p.m. ET)
A building wave? Virginia might be the most important early sign of where the House is going. The Democrats‘ must-win there is in the 10th District, where strategists in both parties say Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock is unlikely to hold onto her seat in the DC suburbs. Republican Rep. Scott Taylor’s race in the Norfolk-area 2nd District, though, is a much better bellwether for the national environment. And if the GOP Rep. Dave Brat loses in the 7th District outside Richmond — or even if he’s in a tight race — it could be an early sign of a building Democratic wave.
Democrats saw one more district in Virginia emerge as competitive late in the cycle: the 5th District, where former journalist Leslie Cockburn takes on Republican Denver Riggleman, an Air Force veteran and distillery owner. A Democratic win here would be a sign of a tidal wave threatening to wipe out Republicans whose races weren’t even on the national radar.
The Atlanta suburbs feature two wave-maker districts — if Democrats win either, it’d mean they’re in for a big night. In Georgia’s 6th District, Republican Rep. Karen Handel — who won a ballyhooed special election against Jon Ossoff last year — faces Lucy McBath, a challenger whose unarmed son was shot and killed over a dispute about loud music. And in the 7th District, Republicans are furious that Rep. Rob Woodall never took his race seriously. „If you don’t think it behooves you to put paid media on air, we’re not going to come help you. We’re not a welfare organization,“ a Republican official said.
Also keep your eye on a few wave-makers in Florida. The Tampa-area 15th District is an open seat that emerged as competitive late — so late, in fact, that Republicans couldn’t afford a rescue effort. On the Atlantic coast side, the 6th District’s open-seat contest for former Rep. Ron DeSantis‘ old seat is another potential Democratic pick-up that would suggest the party is soaring past the 23 seats it needs for a House majority. If either of Republican Reps. Brian Mast or Vern Buchanan lose, it’s another sign that Democrats are on the path to winning the House.
House battleground: Miami. South Florida is the site of two House battlegrounds. In the 26th District, GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo has run well to his party’s left on issues like climate change and immigration, and Republicans need him to survive. In the 27th District, what should be an easy Democratic pick-up has become daunting, as former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala — the non-Spanish-speaking Democratic candidate in a majority Hispanic district — faces former Spanish-language broadcast journalist Maria Elvira Salazar.
History-makers. In Georgia, the headliner is the governor’s race between Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams, an emerging Democratic star who has combined a progressive platform with an appeal to black voters — all with a chance to become the nation’s first black female governor. If neither candidate tops 50%, the race will head to a runoff.
In Florida, a small portion of the panhandle is in Central time, so we’ll need to wait an extra hour for full results to come in for the governor’s race between Democratic Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, a progressive favorite, and DeSantis, who has aligned himself so closely with Trump that this is a potential preview of 2020.
Democrats‘ Senate must-wins. The Florida Senate contest, with Republican Gov. Rick Scott challenging Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson, is one of the nation’s most expensive and closely watched — and if Nelson loses, it would severely diminish Democrats‘ shot at a majority.
A Midwestern state-level resurgence? Democratic former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau head Richard Cordray will try to win the governor’s office in Ohio, a state Trump won by 9 percentage points in 2016. He faces Republican state Attorney General Mike DeWine. It’s the first of several such tests for Democrats, who also hope to reverse GOP gains in Michigan, Iowa and Wisconsin.
The decisive hour (8 p.m. ET)
If you haven’t tuned in yet, this is the time.
Control of the Senate on the line: The Senate majority could come down to two key races in states where the last polls close at 8 p.m. ET.
Tennessee is one of Democrats‘ best pick-up opportunities on the map. Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen has repeatedly pledged to work with Trump in a bid to court moderate Republicans away from GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn.
And Missouri, where Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill faces Republican state Attorney General Josh Hawley, is one of the GOP’s three or so (along with North Dakota and Indiana) best pick-up opportunities.
The most crucial hour for House control. This could also be the hour in which the next House begins to take shape. The two major battlegrounds are Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
In Pennsylvania, where the state Supreme Court made a mid-year decision to redraw the state’s congressional district lines, Democrats look likely to pick up four seats — the open 5th, 6th and 7th districts around Philadelphia, and the 17th District, where Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb and Republican Rep. Keith Rothfus were drawn together into the same suburban Pittsburgh race. One to watch as a sign of a Democratic wave: Whether Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who represents Philadelphia’s northern suburbs, holds on. If Republican Reps. Scott Perry (10th District) or Mike Kelly (16th District) start to sweat, it’s a disaster for the GOP.
In New Jersey, Democrats need to win at least two races with two of their strongest recruits of the cycle: the open 2nd District, where conservative Democratic state Sen. Jeff Van Drew is the heavy favorite, and the 11th District, with Mikie Sherrill.
But it’s the next two that would clearly show Democrats on their way to a huge House majority: Republican incumbents Leonard Lance and Tom MacArthur, one of the architects of the House’s health care repeal bill who also backed Trump’s tax bill, are also in the fights of their political lives. If MacArthur loses, it’d show how potent health care is as an issue for Democrats.
Democrats could also pick off House seats in Illinois. Sean Casten is their best bet — he faces GOP Rep. Peter Roskam in the Chicago suburbs. Also near Chicago, Rep. Randy Hultgren faces a stiff challenge from Lauren Underwood, who campaigned with former President Barack Obama over the weekend. The 12th and 13th Districts are two more wave-maker types with GOP incumbents Mike Bost and Rodney Davis.
More key races to watch this hour:
— New Jersey Senate: Does New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez hold on despite a corruption scandal surrounding the Democrat?
— Maine’s 2nd District: Can Rep. Bruce Poliquin stave off Democratic challenger Jared Golden?
— Mississippi Senate: Does Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith hold off conservative Chris McDaniel and advance to a one-on-one runoff against Democratic former Rep. Mike Espy?
An 8:30 p.m. ET House race: In Arkansas, Democrats got their strongest possible challenger in state lawmaker Clarke Tucker to take on Republican Rep. French Hill. It’s another member of the wave-maker category of districts that would signal a huge Democratic night.
The majority makers (9 p.m. ET)
Suburban revolt? A slew of House seats are up for grabs in the 9 p.m. ET poll closings and, depending on which way states early in the night tilt, a Democratic House majority could come together based on poll closings in Colorado, Texas, Minnesota and a dozen more states.
All eyes will be on Minnesota, where Democrats are now poised to turn the state blue two years after it came close to going for Trump in 2016.Democrats appear likely to hold the state’s two Senate seats and the governor’s mansion, but four closely watched House contests, including two where Democrats are on defense, will indicate how successful Democrats are in breaking down Trump’s red wall.
