Maybe Venom should join the Avengers in Phase Four?
‚Venom‘ Sony
Venom got off to a crazy-good start in China over the weekend, earning $111 million in its opening Fri-Sun weekend. That is the second-biggest China debut every for a Hollywood superhero flick behind only Avengers: Infinity War ($190m). Heck, its $111m weekend alone puts it above the lifetime totals of Logan ($106m), Black Panther ($105m), Wonder Woman ($90m) and Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($94m). And it only has to reach $123m ( Iron Man 3, X-Men: Apocalypse, Ant-Man and the Wasp) to become the biggest “not an Avengers movie” superhero flick ever, behind only Avengers: Infinity War ($356m), Avengers: Age of Ultron ($242m) and Captain America: Civil War ($180m) among all superhero flicks.
All five previous Spider-Man movies have earned a combined $289 million in China going back to 2002. Needless to say, the scenario was a little different for Hollywood biggies in China (and overseas in general) when the Sam Raimi trilogy swung into theaters 16.5 years ago. For reference, the previous grosses were $4.9m ( Spider-Man in 2002), $6.1m ( Spider-Man 2 in 2004), $18.9m ( Spider-Man 3 in 2007), $48.8m ( Amazing Spider-Man in 2012) and $94.4m ( Amazing Spider-Man 2 in 2014). So not only is Venom a bigger grosser than any prior Spider-Man movie, it is on course to make almost as much as every prior Spider-Man movie combined.
Heck, just the last three Spider-Man flicks ( Amazing, Amazing 2 and Homecoming) earned around $259 million combined, which is probably a best-case-scenario finish or Venom. As a general rule, Hollywood biggies do around 1.8x to 2.25x their opening weekends in China, as expanded theatrical availability has allowed much of the demand to be filled on opening weekend (not unlike the current domestic box office). So using that as a rough guesstimate, Venom is likely looking at a Chinese total of between $200m and $250m. Doctor Strange ($109m from a $43m launch) was unusually leggy, but that’s not par for the course. But that would mean a $281m finish for the Sony flick.
With a ridiculous $673.5 million global cume as of today, this one is sailing over $700 million global. If it legs out in China (they seem to love it thus far), we could be looking at an over/under $800m cume. It’s mostly done elsewhere in the world, but another $10m in North America plus another $30m overseas outside of China (it earned $12m this weekend) gives it a $602m global cume without China. Throw in another $200m from China, and you have a $800m+ finish. That would put it above the Amazing Spider-Man movies ($758m in 2012 and $709m in 2014) and above Spider-Man 2 ($784m) and Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy ($773m in 2014) among other related milestones.
Here’s another crazy thought: While The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts 2, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Aquaman and/or Mary Poppins Returns could flirt with $800 million worldwide, that’s no guarantee. So we technically could see a scenario where Venom out-grosses every year-end biggie in terms of global box office. If this all happens, and that’s a big “if,” then Venom may end up passing Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($792m) to end as the year’s fifth-biggest global grosser. It will almost certainly pass Deadpool 2 ($734 million, with an R-rating and no China playdate). And yes, this partially explains why Fox is experimenting with that PG-13 Once Upon A Deadpool recut. And after this weekend, I don’t blame them for trying.
I’ve studied the film industry, both academically and informally, and with an emphasis in box office analysis, for 28 years. I have extensively written about all of said subjects for the last ten years. My outlets for film criticism, box office commentary, and film-skewing s…
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