Mike Clay highlights which teams face the friendliest and toughest slates, who will make the NFL playoffs and who is in the race for the No. 1 pick in 2023.
The NFL schedule will be released tonight, which means we will be one step closer to the start of the 2022 season. In this piece, I’ll be examining the slate down to the nuts and bolts from both an NFL and fantasy football standpoint. How does this schedule impact the fantasy landscape? Which players have it the easiest and hardest? Which 14 teams will make the NFL playoffs? How about an early look at the 2023 draft order? Take your shot at picking win totals for all 32 teams for chance to win up to $10,000! Make Your Picks
Some housekeeping before we dive into this. First, Week 18 is included in the fantasy categories since removing it would have only a minor impact on the findings. Next — and most importantly — my strength of schedule evaluation is not based on final 2021 records, which is often what you’ll see in this type of column. There has been a ton of roster movement this offseason and injured players will return to action, so all of that is factored into each team’s 2022 prospects. My evaluation of each roster — not last year’s production — is what I use to generate the easiest and toughest schedules. The analysis below is your next step in preparing for the 2022 NFL and fantasy football seasons.
1. Washington Commanders: The Washington offense disappointed last season (losing starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1 didn’t help), but perhaps an attractive 2022 schedule will help this unit rebound. Washington’s toughest projected games are a home affair against Green Bay and road trips to San Francisco and Indianapolis. There are a lot of attractive matchups, including the Lions, Bears, Falcons, Texans and Jaguars. The six games against the NFC East also aren’t too intimidating, as the Giants‘ defense took a step back during the offseason and the Cowboys are headed for some serious turnover regression to the mean. The likes of Carson Wentz, Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas and rookie Jahan Dotson stand to benefit.
2. Green Bay Packers: Green Bay benefits greatly from playing six games against the NFC North. Both the Lions and Bears are in rough shape on defense, and while the Vikings are a bit improved, several holes remain. The Packers don’t have many overly intimidating matchups, with a trip to Buffalo easily the scariest. The Cowboys, Rams and Patriots would’ve been tough last season, but none of those units are as good on paper this season and all three games are in Green Bay. Upgrade the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Allen Lazard, Christian Watson and Robert Tonyan.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville overhauled a big chunk of its offense during the offseason, and the new-look unit is set up with an extremely pretty 2022 slate. Three of the games are against two of the league’s weakest projected defenses (Detroit, Houston x2), and the Jaguars also draw the rebuilding Jets, as well as a Giants defense that took a step back during the offseason. There aren’t any elite defenses on the schedule, with the Colts (x2) perhaps their toughest matchup. For what it’s worth (more on this later), second-year QB Trevor Lawrence will play 11 games against defenses that were 11th or worse in fantasy points allowed to QBs last season.
1. Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta has one of the league’s shakiest offenses on paper and a tough schedule is only going to compound what could be a rough 2022. The Falcons benefit from matchups with Carolina (x2), Seattle and Chicago, but that’s where the positives end. The division-rival Saints (x2) remain an elite defense, and the Buccaneers (x2) figure to again be solid. The Bengals, 49ers and Rams are also on the schedule. In fact, of Atlanta’s 17 games, 13 are against defenses projected to be average or better. We’re already avoiding most of this offense in fantasy, but this certainly isn’t pleasant news for the breakout prospects of youngsters Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Fantasy Football is Free on ESPN
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2. Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh finished 25th in offensive touchdowns while dealing with a tough schedule last season, and things aren’t looking too rosy again in 2022. The Steelers‘ „easiest“ games are matchups with the Falcons, Panthers and Jets, though two of them are on the road. Their toughest matchups include the Saints, Bills, Bengals (x2), Buccaneers and Colts. Healthy and/or improved Baltimore (x2) and Cleveland (x2) defenses will also make life tough. Same as Atlanta, Pittsburgh has a major question mark at quarterback, so combined with a tough schedule and weak offensive line, the Steelers‘ skill-position players could continue to struggle with efficiency.
