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Analysis: China’s Ukraine plan mixes peace, self-interest

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BEIJING (AP) — Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s plan to send an envoy to Ukraine allows his government to deflect criticism of its support for Moscow and pursue a…
Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s plan to send an envoy to Ukraine allows his government to deflect criticism of its support for Moscow and pursue a bigger role as a diplomatic force, but Xi faces daunting obstacles if he is serious about trying to help end the 14-month-old war.
The biggest: Neither Ukraine nor Russia is ready to stop fighting.
Xi’s announcement Wednesday in a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy prompted optimism Beijing might use its warm relations with Russia’s Vladimir Putin to push for peace. That was followed by skeptical questions about whether Beijing is more focused on ending an invasion it refuses to criticize, or serving its own interests.
China’s starting point is a peace proposal issued in February that called for a ceasefire, negotiations and an end to sanctions against Russia. It offered few details, but repeated Russian accusations that Western governments were to blame for the invasion.
China has good reasons to want to see the war ended. It jolted the Chinese economy by pushing up oil, wheat and other commodity prices. Beijing also warned Wednesday about the dangers of nuclear war, after Russia announced earlier it would move atomic weapons into neighboring Belarus.
“China’s self-interest happens to align with ending the war,” said John Delury, an international relations specialist at Yonsei University in Seoul.
“Beijing has no interest in seeing Russia humiliated, nor is it in China’s interest for Russia to be triumphant,” Delury said.“The best option is a cease-fire and, with it, economic opportunities to participate in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.”
Wednesday’s statement gave no indication how China might recommend addressing the questions the two countries are fighting over, including Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula seized by Moscow from Ukraine in 2014.
PLAYING PEACEMAKER HELPS BEIJING IN EUROPE
By playing peacemaker, Beijing might also be looking to separate European allies from the United States, which Xi accuses of trying to block China’s economic and political rise.
Beijing is trying to repair relations with Europe after an uproar over a Chinese ambassador’s comment that former Soviet republics might not be sovereign countries. That group includes Ukraine, and European Union members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron have visited Beijing and appealed for help with Ukraine, highlighting the challenges faced by Washington in holding together allies to oppose China’s assertive policies abroad.

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