How concert movies can fill the movie theater gap and become a powerhouse film genre at the worldwide box office.
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour premiered today at The Grove in Los Angeles, ahead of what increasingly looks like a huge $150 million global box office bow on par with a Marvel Studios tentpole superhero film. The film opens wide on Friday the 13th, a number and day with special meaning to her, and runs on weekends through the first week of November and could go longer.
At a projected $100-150 million domestic and $50 million or more internationally, The Eras Tour gets an added boost from above-average ticket pricing that is still vastly lower than the usual inflated prices for concert tickets. It set records for AMC with $26 million in first-day pre-sales domestically.
But here is the thing: It’s already topped $100 million in pre-sales worldwide, and that was six days ago. So keep in mind, current estimates are potentially too conservative and there’s a chance I should be predicting a $150 million opening in North America alone. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
With weekend-only dates (which also includes some Sunday screenings, apparently), the film can make each weekend feel like another chance to attend a concert with a large crowd of fans for a premium concert experience at a bargain rate. If the film lives up to expectations and delivers an elevated concert movie experience, and if premium theaters in particular can take full advantage of the potential of this event release, then I believe it will trigger a renaissance for the concert film genre.
Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé arrives December 1st to keep momentum going for concert films, and has already impressed with first-day pre-sales total of up to $7 million. Those numbers will obviously soar far higher as the weeks pass, and international sales will be enormous too.
One of many great things for theaters — and any studios that own a library of popular music still capable of making the concert rounds — is that while other genres must worry about oversaturation of the marketplace, concert films are designed to inherently appeal to specific sets of built-in fanbases that are potentially larger than any given movie star or movie franchise.
And theaters can sell concert movie tickets at higher prices to fans happy to pay it, because it’s much cheaper alternative to attending live concerts, as well as a more interactive sort of theatrical experience justifying a higher-than-usual ticket price.
The biggest global pop sensations can turn out tens if not hundreds of millions of fans, and even the next lower tier of popular music can generate so much interest it’s comparable to a successful mid-range budget feature film. But concert film costs are far lower, of course, so solid marketing spending and promos combined with investing in making the theater venue a wonderful alternative for crowds who miss the live performances can pay off exponentially and deliver huge revenue streams.
If theaters demonstrate to fans that their venues can match the excitement, quality, energy, merchandising, and celebration atmosphere of a concert but within different parameters — for example, supplying a first-row experience to every person in the theater, compared to nosebleed seats in a stadium, offering 3D and superior audio experiences like Dolby Atmos — then concert films can build upon the imminent blockbuster success of Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour movie and Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé as a permanent major addition to theatrical distribution and box office.
