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College Football Playoff scenarios: Paths to top four for contending teams

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The committee released its penultimate rankings on Tuesday, with Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State in the top four.
Eight teams are still in contention for four spots in this season’s College Football Playoff heading into conference championship weekend.
The selection committee released its penultimate rankings on Tuesday, which saw Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State occupy the top four spots. But, aside from those four undefeated squads, four one-loss teams—Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, and Alabama—can still find a way into the playoff field.
Seven of these eight teams will be in action this weekend. Oregon and Washington will face off in a highly anticipated rematch during the Pac-12 Championship Game on Friday night. The other Power Five conference title games will be played on Saturday. And it all leads up to the final unveiling of the rankings at noon ET on Sunday.
A variety of scenarios are still on the table for this year’s playoff field. How can Ohio State make its way back into the top four despite not playing this weekend? In what scenario does the SEC get two—or no—teams in? And which contenders control their own destiny this weekend?
Here’s a look at the path to the playoff for the top eight teams.
The two-time defending national champions would lock into the College Football Playoff’s top seed with a win over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday. Which is easier said than done. The Bulldogs are 0-3 against the Crimson Tide in conference title games. Two years ago, an undefeated Georgia team lost to Alabama in this game but still made the playoff. With a loss in this year’s game, Kirby Smart’s team will likely need Florida State and Texas to lose their respective conference title games to still reach the playoff.
That would leave Michigan, Washington, and Alabama above Georgia. And the No. 4 spot would come down to Georgia and Ohio State, a comparison favorable to the Bulldogs.
Michigan enters the Big Ten Championship Game as a heavy favorite over Iowa. With a win, the Wolverines would remain the No. 2 seed, or perhaps even jump to the top spot if Alabama beats Georgia.

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