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Why Tim Cook thinks you’ll upgrade to an iPhone 16 model; is he right?

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Apple CEO Tim Cook thinks that the addition of Apple Intelligence adds enough value to get older iPhone users to update this year.
After Apple’s earnings announcement was released on Thursday, Tim Cook was on a conference call with Wall Street analysts and some media types. As is typical during these post-earnings report calls, representatives of both Wall Street and Main Street wanted to get Cook to reveal exactly how many iPhone 16 series purchases he expects will come from upgrades this year. And just as typical was the executive’s tight-lipped non-response.
With approximately 1.5 billion active iPhone models worldwide (which is nearly 22% of all smartphones used globally), Apple counts on a certain percentage of these users to upgrade every year and this year, the company is even giving some users an incentive to upgrade with Apple Intelligence. Because Apple’s AI initiative requires a minimum of 8GB of RAM to run, of current models, only the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max support Apple Intelligence.

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