Ukraine’s sneak attack has Russia scrambling. What does this mean for the war?
Ukraine’s invasion into the Kursk region of Russia shocked Ukrainians, their allies, and most of all, Russia.
Ukrainian units have mounted brief, overnight raids into Russian territory before, including one into the Kursk region — near Russia’s western border — earlier this year. But those were quick incursions followed by hasty retreats. This time is different: Ukraine has managed to capture nearly 400 square miles so far, as well as hundreds of Russian soldiers.
The Ukrainian offensive began more than a week ago, on August 6. Ukrainian troops — how many is unclear, though US officials have said several thousand — and armored vehicles crossed the border from northeastern Ukraine. It’s also unclear how much fighting has taken place, though reporting suggests Ukrainian forces have faced at least some Russian defenses.
Ukraine has yet to say what its military objective is, and it likely has more than just one. No officials other than President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have spoken publicly about those objectives; the president said that “Russia has brought war to others, and now it is coming home.” Still, the sustained invasion has proved to be a morale boost for Ukrainians sorely in need of one after two and a half years of grinding war.
Russia’s response to the Kursk operation has been extremely slow. Part of that may be because its military apparatus is extremely hierarchical — which can delay rapid action as decisions work their way up the chain — and because it has gone through major destabilizing changes of late. Crucially, its forces are also tied up in Ukraine’s east, where they have been making gains in recent months.
Russia’s rhetorical response has also been quite muted. President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin’s military apparatus are referring to efforts to rebut the Ukrainian advance as an anti-terror campaign rather than a full military operation. Part of Russia’s strategy overall has been to simultaneously portray its war in Ukraine as existential and not that serious; it refers to its invasion as “a special military operation,” making it sound less concerning to Russians than an all-out war, and assures them that it doesn’t affect their lives.
Ukraine’s strategy in the Kursk region makes that harder to maintain, since so far around 200,000 Russians have evacuated from their homes due to the invasion — and the Russian government is only offering about $115 to compensate.
