Pennsylvania has voted for 10 of the last 12 White House winners.
Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris has a 3% lead in Pennsylvania over former President Donald Trump in a new poll Saturday, after three other polls this week reflected a virtual stalemate for the battleground state, where a win for either candidate could pave the way to the White House.Key Facts
Harris leads Trump by four points (50% to 47%, but closer to a four point, according to the data) in a pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls, marking the third Times/Siena survey in two months where Harris was backed by at lest half the battleground state.
However, Trump had a one point advantage (46% to 45%) in Friday’s Wall Street Journal Poll that includes third-party candidates, a departure from the dead heat reflected in recent polls.
Trump maintained his one-point lead in an Emerson College survey released Thursday since the group’s September poll, but Harris lead by three points in a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday.
Harris leads by 0.4 points in Pennsylvania in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Trump holds a slim 0.1 point lead in Real Clear Politics’ polling average and Harris is up 0.8 points in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.
Pennsylvania has more electoral votes, 19, than any other battleground, and Pennsylvanians routinely pick winners, voting for 10 of the last 12 White House winners—the candidate who has won Pennsylvania has also won Michigan and Wisconsin (the three states together are known as the “blue wall”) in the past eight elections.
Pennsylvania has a 29% chance of tipping the election, far more than any other battleground state, according to political analyst Nate Silver’s election forecasting model that found Harris has an 87.
