Pennsylvania has voted for 10 of the last 12 White House winners.
Topline
Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by one point in Pennsylvania in a new poll out Thursday, while polling averages show the race is essentially even in the battleground state.Key Facts
Trump is up 49% to 48% over Harris in a new Emerson poll of likely voters released Thursday (margin of error 3.4), maintaining his one-point lead from the group’s survey released Oct. 10.
Harris leads Trump 50%-48.2% among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey out Wednesday (margin of error 3).
Harris is also ahead two points, 49% to 47%, in a /Schar School poll of likely voters published Monday (margin of error 4.6).
Harris led Trump by three points, 50%-47%, in a pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls released Oct. 12, while Trump was up 47%-46% in a Sept. 28-Oct. 8 Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters who said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for either candidate.
The polling averages are close to tied: Trump leads by 0.3 points in Pennsylvania in FiveThirtyEight’s average, by 0.6 points in RealClearPolitics’ average, and by 0.2 points in statistician Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin—as Silver gives Trump a 52.1% chance of winning the state.
Pennsylvania has more electoral votes, 19, than any other battleground, and Pennsylvanians routinely pick winners, voting for 10 of the last 12 White House winners—the candidate who has won Pennsylvania has also won Michigan and Wisconsin (the three states together are known as the “blue wall”) in the past eight elections.
Pennsylvania is far more likely to tip the election than any other battleground state, according to Silver’s election forecasting model, which also found both candidates have a more than 85% chance of winning the election if they secure Pennsylvania.
