Trump appears to hold the momentum before the election, but experts say the polling numbers mean little for the race overall.
In the final weeks of the 2024 election, former President Donald Trump has appeared to hold the spotlight.
Several election forecasters have begun to tip in the Republican presidential nominee’s direction in recent weeks. While Vice President Kamala Harris continues to hold a slight lead in the popular vote, Electoral College models by FiveThirtyEight and Decision Desk HQ at The Hill favor Trump.
The former president’s chance of victory in November has also jumped on betting platforms like Polymarket, a potential sign that Americans are preparing for a second Trump presidency. And after years of assailing mail-in ballots and other methods, the Republican National Committee’s shift on early voting appears to be paying off, with GOP voters turning up in higher numbers in key swing states.
After weeks of Harris holding the momentum—particularly after her and Trump’s first debate in September—the recent boosts for the GOP have been seen by some as a warning sign for Democrats.
Pollster Nate Silver wrote in his Silver Bulletin blog on Thursday that the shift is „not a good sign“ for Harris so close to Election Day, and Trump’s team has projected a message of confidence during the final days on the campaign trail.
„Even after the Democrats have spent over $200 million trying to redefine Kamala Harris, President Trump is winning or tied in every battleground because his message is resonating with voters across the country“, RNC spokesperson Anna Kelly told Newsweek.
However, analysts told Newsweek there is not much to read in to the recent buzz surrounding Trump. Polling continues to show that the race for the White House is a neck-and-neck battle, and early voting numbers don’t reflect the state of the race at this point in time.
