As the election betting market expands, the need for robust compliance and regulatory frameworks will likely grow, driving demand for professionals in these areas.
For the first time in nearly a century, Americans can now legally and widely participate in betting on election outcomes across the United States.
A federal appeals court ruling early last month cleared the way for Kalshi, a regulated exchange and prediction market, to offer betting markets on the presidential race and congressional control. This landmark decision allows American citizens to wager on key political outcomes, including which party will control the Senate and House of Representatives, as well as the hotly contested presidential race between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Kalshi aimed to establish a regulated platform for election outcome betting, but its regulatory body—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—rejected this proposal. The CFTC argued that such election markets could potentially compromise election integrity, as stated in its filed motion. The regulator expressed concern that even a brief period of offering election contracts could undermine public confidence in the electoral process.
Despite these objections, the Washington D.C. appeals court said the CFTC was unable to provide substantial evidence demonstrating that these markets would cause significant harm to the public interest.
„More to the point, the Commission has not explained why traditional tools for regulating market manipulation will not work in the election-contract context. For example, the Commission can serve subpoenas, call witnesses, and hold hearings to investigate whether someone is manipulating an event contract“, wrote Circuit Judge Patricia Millett.
Election betting in the U.S., while growing, remains significantly smaller than sports betting. Kalshi reported that Americans have legally wagered over $123 million on the presidential election to date. This figure is dwarfed by the estimated $23.1 billion bet on Super Bowl LVIII and $2.7 billion on March Madness this year, according to the American Gaming Association.
