Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries coupled with Russia’s costly, ineffective offensive give Kyiv leverage for future peace negotiations.
Earlier this year, peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine stalled, with some claiming that Ukraine had entered the talks with “no cards“ to play. Since then, Ukraine has strengthened its position, launching a series of successful drone strikes against Russian refineries, eroding one of Russia’s most important sources of revenue. At the same time, Russia is pouring increasing resources into its summer offensive and strategic drone strikes, while achieving minimal results. This combination creates a financially unfavorable situation for the Russians and provides Ukraine with much-needed leverage for the next round of peace negotiations.Ukraine’s Strategic Strikes Against Russian Oil Refineries
Throughout this past summer, Ukraine has launched a coordinated series of long-range drone attacks against Russian oil refineries, causing major disruptions to the country’s fuel infrastructure. Reports indicate that more than ten refineries were struck during August, shutting down about 17 percent of Russia’s refining capacity, or approximately 1.1 million barrels per day. Repeated strikes on the Ryazan refinery in the Moscow area and the Novokuibyshevsk refinery in the Samara region disabled several key distillation units. Meanwhile the Volgograd plant in southern Russia had to suspend processing oil after a recent strike. Other refineries across the country have also been targeted. These attacks have continued into September, with additional facilities hit and many struck multiple times.
Ukraine’s ability to strike deep targets in Russia stems from advances in its drone industry. Many of these strikes appear to involve Liutyi strike drones, which are domestically produced, allowing Ukraine to use them without requiring permission from other countries.
